ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
Is ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) stock is $154.00, versus a market price of $160.10 — Fairly Valued. Predicted EPS $8.80 x 17.5 Fair PE.
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 4.73 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $154.00 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) Investment Thesis — a Value Investor's View
Exxon Mobil is a bet that disciplined oil production remains a cash machine for longer than the energy transition narrative assumes. Its edge is asset quality — Guyana and Permian barrels sit low on the global cost curve, meaning Exxon still profits at prices that bankrupt marginal producers. Earnings here are a commodity-price derivative, so our multiple-based fair value inherits whatever the oil price was doing over the trailing year; treat it as a snapshot, not a verdict. The discipline that matters is management's: capex restraint and buybacks at low prices created the last decade's returns, and abandoning that discipline at a cycle top is the historical failure mode of every supermajor.
Could ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.73 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives XOM's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0246 | 1.2 | 0.03 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 1.0746 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0933 | 3.3 | 0.31 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 3.6101 | 0.6 | 2.17 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.7214 | 1.0 | 0.72 |
How has XOM's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.89 | Safe |
| 2023 | 5.56 | Safe |
| 2024 | 4.78 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.73 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from XOM's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $8.80 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (2Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $6.70 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $11.56 | 22 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 20.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 17.5x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $168.32 (22 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up XOM's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is XOM's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 33.7% | — |
| 2023 | 22.1% | Declining |
| 2024 | 16.5% | Declining |
| 2025 | 14.1% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's dividend safe?
Can ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 52.5%. FCF covers the dividend 3.9x. 65 consecutive years of payments.
US dividend withholding tax of 30% applies to non-US tax residents. This rate may be reduced under a tax treaty between the US and your country of residence. The adjusted yield shown assumes the default 30% rate. For informational purposes only — consult a qualified tax advisor.
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $323.9B | $339.2B | $398.7B | Declining |
| Net Income | $28.8B | $33.7B | $55.7B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $23.6B | $30.7B | $58.4B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 22.0% | 22.6% | 25.9% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our XOM analysis
XOM earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $3.55. Revenue estimate: $97.10B. Our current Fair Value: $154.00 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
XOM analyst consensus: 40% bullish (10 of 25 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 14 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $168.32 (5.1% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $154.00.
XOM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM beat EPS estimates by 13.3%
Reported EPS: $4.11 vs estimate $3.63. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $154.00 (3.8% below current price).
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
XOM paid $1.0300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 52.5%.
XOM beat EPS estimates by 15.1%
Reported EPS: $1.16 vs estimate $1.01. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $154.00 (3.8% below current price).
XOM paid $1.0300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 52.5%.
XOM beat EPS estimates by 1.1%
Reported EPS: $1.71 vs estimate $1.69. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $154.00 (3.8% below current price).
XOM paid $1.0300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 52.5%.
XOM beat EPS estimates by 3.0%
Reported EPS: $1.88 vs estimate $1.82. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $154.00 (3.8% below current price).
XOM paid $0.9900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 52.5%.
XOM beat EPS estimates by 4.9%
Reported EPS: $1.64 vs estimate $1.56. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $154.00 (3.8% below current price).
XOM paid $0.9900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 52.5%.
XOM beat EPS estimates by 1.2%
Reported EPS: $1.76 vs estimate $1.74. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $154.00 (3.8% below current price).
XOM paid $0.9900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 52.5%.
XOM beat EPS estimates by 7.9%
Reported EPS: $1.67 vs estimate $1.55. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $154.00 (3.8% below current price).
Common questions about ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation
What is ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation stock price today?
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) stock price is $160.10 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation do?
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas.
What is ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation market cap?
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation has a market capitalization of $658.32B, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Energy sector.
What sector and industry is XOM in?
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation operates in the Energy sector, specifically within the Oil & Gas Integrated industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol XOM.
Is XOM stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation trades 4.0% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $154.00
- Current Price: $160.10
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is XOM stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 22 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation is $168.32, implying upside of 5.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $185.00
- Analyst Low Target: $142.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 21.3%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 65.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): -2.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): -7.8%
What are ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $323.9B | Declining |
| Net Income | $28.8B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $23.6B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 22.0% | Declining |
What is XOM's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 20.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 15.0x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 17.5x
How volatile is XOM stock?
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation has a beta of 0.17, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation have?
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $10.59B
- Total Debt: $42.37B
- Net Cash Position: $-31.78B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's free cash flow?
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation generated $20.67B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $59.73B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.6%
- Payout Ratio: 52.5%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 65
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -10.0%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 4.73, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is XOM's return on equity (ROE)?
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's return on equity is 12.6%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy XOM stock?
XOM shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol XOM
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is XOM a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation?
The current CEO of ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation is Mr. Darren W. Woods.
What is XOM's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $7.77
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $10.69
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $11.56
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $10.66
Other Energy companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
XOM analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings