Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Financial Services · Credit Services
Is Affirm Holdings, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. is in the Financial Services sector — Altman Z-Score does not apply to this type of company. Our fair value estimate is $78.23 (Buy Zone).
Why the Altman Z-Score does not apply to Affirm Holdings, Inc.
The Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing and non-financial companies. It uses ratios like Working Capital / Total Assets and Revenue / Total Assets that produce misleading results for Financial Services companies.
- Banks hold massive assets (loans) that inflate Total Assets, making WC/TA nearly zero — a false distress signal
- Utilities carry high regulated debt by design — the model misreads leverage as risk
- REITs use Funds From Operations (FFO), not Free Cash Flow — standard cash flow analysis doesn't apply
Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing companies and does not apply to banks, utilities, or REITs.
Note: A sector-specific financial health model for Financial Services companies is planned for a future update.
What is Affirm Holdings, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst Consensus Target | $78.23 | 27 Wall Street analysts |
| Analyst High / Low | $100.00 / $53.00 | Range of analyst price targets |
| Price / Book | 6.24x | Current market valuation vs book value |
| Return on Equity | 8.9% | Profitability relative to shareholder equity |
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Why standard moat analysis does not apply to Affirm Holdings, Inc.
Our standard moat model uses ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and switching costs — metrics designed for product and service companies. Financial Services companies compete on fundamentally different dimensions.
- Banks — moat comes from deposit cost advantage, net interest margin stability, and fee income diversification
- Utilities — moat is a regulatory monopoly with guaranteed rate of return on invested capital
- REITs — moat comes from property portfolio quality, location, tenant mix, and cap rate advantages
Standard moat analysis (ROIC/gross margin/switching costs) does not reliably apply to Financial Services companies. Banks compete on net interest margin, utilities on regulated returns, and REITs on occupancy and cap rates.
Note: A sector-specific competitive analysis for Financial Services companies is planned for a future update.
Is Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.2B | $2.3B | $1.3B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.1B | −$0.5B | −$0.7B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.6B | $0.3B | −$0.3B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 67.5% | 63.6% | 57.3% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our AFRM analysis
AFRM earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.73. Revenue estimate: $994.9M. Our current Fair Value: $78.23 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
AFRM analyst consensus: 74% bullish (23 of 31 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 19 Buy, 8 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $78.23 (17.5% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $78.23.
AFRM missed EPS estimates by 13.9%
Reported EPS: $0.72 vs estimate $0.84. Our Fair Value of $78.23 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AFRM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM beat EPS estimates by 105.2%
Reported EPS: $0.23 vs estimate $0.11. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $78.23 (17.5% above current price).
AFRM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM beat EPS estimates by 22.5%
Reported EPS: $0.53 vs estimate $0.43. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $78.23 (17.5% above current price).
AFRM filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM missed EPS estimates by 51.8%
Reported EPS: $0.19 vs estimate $0.40. Our Fair Value of $78.23 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AFRM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM beat EPS estimates by 239.0%
Reported EPS: $0.23 vs estimate $-0.17. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $78.23 (17.5% above current price).
AFRM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFRM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Affirm Holdings, Inc.
What is Affirm Holdings, Inc. stock price today?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) stock price is $66.58 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Affirm Holdings, Inc. do?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates payment network in the United States, Canada, and internationally. Its platform includes point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app.
What is Affirm Holdings, Inc. market cap?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. has a market capitalization of $22.18B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Financial Services sector.
What sector and industry is AFRM in?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically within the Credit Services industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol AFRM.
Is AFRM stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Affirm Holdings, Inc. trades 14.9% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $78.23
- Current Price: $66.58
- Valuation Zone: Buy Zone
What is AFRM stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 27 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Affirm Holdings, Inc. is $78.23, implying upside of 17.5% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $100.00
- Analyst Low Target: $53.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Affirm Holdings, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Affirm Holdings, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 28.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 79.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 24.1%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 12.2%
What are Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 67.5% | Rising |
What is AFRM's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 82.2x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 17.7x
How volatile is AFRM stock?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. has a beta of 3.63, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Affirm Holdings, Inc. have?
Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.56B
- Total Debt: $9.18B
- Net Cash Position: $-7.62B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. generated $457.5M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $833.3M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Affirm Holdings, Inc. pay a dividend?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Affirm Holdings, Inc. financially healthy?
The Altman Z-Score — the standard bankruptcy prediction model — is not applicable to Financial Services companies like Affirm Holdings, Inc.. The formula uses ratios designed for manufacturing firms that produce misleading results for banks, utilities, and REITs.
Does Affirm Holdings, Inc. have a competitive moat?
Our standard moat model (based on ROIC, gross margins, and switching costs) does not apply to Financial Services companies. These firms compete on fundamentally different dimensions such as regulatory advantages, deposit cost structures, or property portfolios.
What is AFRM's return on equity (ROE)?
Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s return on equity is 8.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy AFRM stock?
AFRM shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol AFRM
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is AFRM a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Affirm Holdings, Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Affirm Holdings, Inc.?
The current CEO of Affirm Holdings, Inc. is Mr. Max Roth Levchin.
What is AFRM's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $0.81
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $3.76
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $3.13
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $3.51
Other Financial Services companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
AFRM analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings