American Express Company (AXP) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Financial Services · Credit Services
Is American Express Company a safe investment right now?
American Express Company is in the Financial Services sector — Altman Z-Score does not apply to this type of company. Our fair value estimate is $356.15 (Watch Zone).
Why the Altman Z-Score does not apply to American Express Company
The Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing and non-financial companies. It uses ratios like Working Capital / Total Assets and Revenue / Total Assets that produce misleading results for Financial Services companies.
- Banks hold massive assets (loans) that inflate Total Assets, making WC/TA nearly zero — a false distress signal
- Utilities carry high regulated debt by design — the model misreads leverage as risk
- REITs use Funds From Operations (FFO), not Free Cash Flow — standard cash flow analysis doesn't apply
Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing companies and does not apply to banks, utilities, or REITs.
Note: A sector-specific financial health model for Financial Services companies is planned for a future update.
What is American Express Company actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst Consensus Target | $356.15 | 23 Wall Street analysts |
| Analyst High / Low | $462.00 / $285.00 | Range of analyst price targets |
| Price / Book | 6.82x | Current market valuation vs book value |
| Return on Equity | 34.0% | Profitability relative to shareholder equity |
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Why standard moat analysis does not apply to American Express Company
Our standard moat model uses ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and switching costs — metrics designed for product and service companies. Financial Services companies compete on fundamentally different dimensions.
- Banks — moat comes from deposit cost advantage, net interest margin stability, and fee income diversification
- Utilities — moat is a regulatory monopoly with guaranteed rate of return on invested capital
- REITs — moat comes from property portfolio quality, location, tenant mix, and cap rate advantages
Standard moat analysis (ROIC/gross margin/switching costs) does not reliably apply to Financial Services companies. Banks compete on net interest margin, utilities on regulated returns, and REITs on occupancy and cap rates.
Note: A sector-specific competitive analysis for Financial Services companies is planned for a future update.
Is American Express Company's dividend safe?
Can American Express Company afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 21.3%. FCF covers the dividend 12.3x. 50 consecutive years of payments.
American Express Company's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $72.2B | $65.9B | $52.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $10.8B | $10.1B | $7.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $16.0B | $12.1B | $19.2B | Declining |
Recent events that affect our AXP analysis
AXP earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $3.99. Revenue estimate: $18.61B. Our current Fair Value: $356.15 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
AXP analyst consensus: 39% bullish (11 of 28 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 16 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $356.15 (7.0% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $356.15.
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP paid $0.9500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.3%.
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP missed EPS estimates by 0.1%
Reported EPS: $3.53 vs estimate $3.53. Our Fair Value of $356.15 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP paid $0.8200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.3%.
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP beat EPS estimates by 3.6%
Reported EPS: $4.14 vs estimate $4.00. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $356.15 (7.0% above current price).
AXP filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP paid $0.8200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.3%.
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP beat EPS estimates by 5.1%
Reported EPS: $4.08 vs estimate $3.88. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $356.15 (7.0% above current price).
AXP filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP paid $0.8200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.3%.
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP beat EPS estimates by 4.8%
Reported EPS: $3.64 vs estimate $3.47. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $356.15 (7.0% above current price).
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP paid $0.8200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.3%.
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP beat EPS estimates by 0.2%
Reported EPS: $3.04 vs estimate $3.03. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $356.15 (7.0% above current price).
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AXP paid $0.7000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.3%.
Common questions about American Express Company
What is American Express Company stock price today?
American Express Company (AXP) stock price is $332.90 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does American Express Company do?
American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated payments company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, Canada, the Caribbean, and internationally. It operates through four segments: U.S. Consumer Services, Commercial Services, International Card Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services.
What is American Express Company market cap?
American Express Company has a market capitalization of $228.57B, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Financial Services sector.
What sector and industry is AXP in?
American Express Company operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically within the Credit Services industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol AXP.
Is AXP stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, American Express Company trades 6.5% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $356.15
- Current Price: $332.90
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is AXP stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 23 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for American Express Company is $356.15, implying upside of 7.0% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $462.00
- Analyst Low Target: $285.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is American Express Company revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for American Express Company:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 9.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 14.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 9.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 14.4%
What are American Express Company's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $72.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $10.8B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $16.0B | Declining |
What is AXP's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 21.6x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 16.6x
How volatile is AXP stock?
American Express Company has a beta of 1.13, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does American Express Company have?
American Express Company's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $47.64B
- Total Debt: $63.91B
- Net Cash Position: $-16.26B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
Does American Express Company pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, American Express Company pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.0%
- Payout Ratio: 21.3%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 50
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: 0.6%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is American Express Company financially healthy?
The Altman Z-Score — the standard bankruptcy prediction model — is not applicable to Financial Services companies like American Express Company. The formula uses ratios designed for manufacturing firms that produce misleading results for banks, utilities, and REITs.
Does American Express Company have a competitive moat?
Our standard moat model (based on ROIC, gross margins, and switching costs) does not apply to Financial Services companies. These firms compete on fundamentally different dimensions such as regulatory advantages, deposit cost structures, or property portfolios.
What is AXP's return on equity (ROE)?
American Express Company's return on equity is 34.0%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy AXP stock?
AXP shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol AXP
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is AXP a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies American Express Company as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of American Express Company?
The current CEO of American Express Company is Mr. Stephen Joseph Squeri.
What is AXP's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $15.38
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $20.11
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $17.56
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $20.09
Other Financial Services companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
AXP analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings