Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Financial Services · Capital Markets
Is Morgan Stanley a safe investment right now?
Morgan Stanley is in the Financial Services sector — Altman Z-Score does not apply to this type of company. Our fair value estimate is $197.76 (Watch Zone).
Why the Altman Z-Score does not apply to Morgan Stanley
The Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing and non-financial companies. It uses ratios like Working Capital / Total Assets and Revenue / Total Assets that produce misleading results for Financial Services companies.
- Banks hold massive assets (loans) that inflate Total Assets, making WC/TA nearly zero — a false distress signal
- Utilities carry high regulated debt by design — the model misreads leverage as risk
- REITs use Funds From Operations (FFO), not Free Cash Flow — standard cash flow analysis doesn't apply
Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing companies and does not apply to banks, utilities, or REITs.
Note: A sector-specific financial health model for Financial Services companies is planned for a future update.
What is Morgan Stanley actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst Consensus Target | $197.76 | 21 Wall Street analysts |
| Analyst High / Low | $230.00 / $165.00 | Range of analyst price targets |
| Price / Book | 2.97x | Current market valuation vs book value |
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Why standard moat analysis does not apply to Morgan Stanley
Our standard moat model uses ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and switching costs — metrics designed for product and service companies. Financial Services companies compete on fundamentally different dimensions.
- Banks — moat comes from deposit cost advantage, net interest margin stability, and fee income diversification
- Utilities — moat is a regulatory monopoly with guaranteed rate of return on invested capital
- REITs — moat comes from property portfolio quality, location, tenant mix, and cap rate advantages
Standard moat analysis (ROIC/gross margin/switching costs) does not reliably apply to Financial Services companies. Banks compete on net interest margin, utilities on regulated returns, and REITs on occupancy and cap rates.
Note: A sector-specific competitive analysis for Financial Services companies is planned for a future update.
Is Morgan Stanley's dividend safe?
Can Morgan Stanley afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 35.5%. FCF covers the dividend -1.8x. 34 consecutive years of payments.
Morgan Stanley's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $66.0B | $57.6B | $50.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $16.9B | $13.4B | $11.0B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | −$20.8B | −$2.1B | −$9.5B | Declining |
Recent events that affect our MS analysis
MS earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.75. Revenue estimate: $19.05B. Our current Fair Value: $197.76 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
MS analyst consensus: 40% bullish (10 of 25 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 14 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $197.76 (3.5% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $197.76.
MS beat EPS estimates by 13.6%
Reported EPS: $3.43 vs estimate $3.02. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $197.76 (3.5% above current price).
MS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MS filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MS paid $1.0000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 35.5%.
MS beat EPS estimates by 9.4%
Reported EPS: $2.68 vs estimate $2.45. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $197.76 (3.5% above current price).
MS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MS filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MS paid $1.0000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 35.5%.
MS beat EPS estimates by 32.6%
Reported EPS: $2.80 vs estimate $2.11. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $197.76 (3.5% above current price).
MS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MS filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MS paid $1.0000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 35.5%.
MS beat EPS estimates by 8.6%
Reported EPS: $2.13 vs estimate $1.96. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $197.76 (3.5% above current price).
MS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MS filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MS filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MS paid $0.9250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 35.5%.
MS beat EPS estimates by 18.6%
Reported EPS: $2.60 vs estimate $2.19. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $197.76 (3.5% above current price).
MS paid $0.9250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 35.5%.
MS beat EPS estimates by 31.4%
Reported EPS: $2.22 vs estimate $1.69. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $197.76 (3.5% above current price).
Common questions about Morgan Stanley
What is Morgan Stanley stock price today?
Morgan Stanley (MS) stock price is $191.05 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Morgan Stanley do?
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial products and services to corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals in the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management segments. It offers capital raising and financial advisory services, including services related to the underwriting of debt, equity securities, and other products, as well as advice on mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, and project finance.
What is Morgan Stanley market cap?
Morgan Stanley has a market capitalization of $303.36B, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Financial Services sector.
What sector and industry is MS in?
Morgan Stanley operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically within the Capital Markets industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol MS.
Is MS stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Morgan Stanley trades 3.4% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $197.76
- Current Price: $191.05
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is MS stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 21 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Morgan Stanley is $197.76, implying upside of 3.5% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $230.00
- Analyst Low Target: $165.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Morgan Stanley revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Morgan Stanley:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 9.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 15.8%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 4.9%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 7.1%
What are Morgan Stanley's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $66.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | $16.9B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | −$20.8B | Declining |
What is MS's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 17.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 15.2x
How volatile is MS stock?
Morgan Stanley has a beta of 1.18, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Morgan Stanley have?
Morgan Stanley's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $600.39B
- Total Debt: $513.41B
- Net Cash Position: $86.98B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
Does Morgan Stanley pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Morgan Stanley pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.1%
- Payout Ratio: 35.5%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 34
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -13.8%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Morgan Stanley financially healthy?
The Altman Z-Score — the standard bankruptcy prediction model — is not applicable to Financial Services companies like Morgan Stanley. The formula uses ratios designed for manufacturing firms that produce misleading results for banks, utilities, and REITs.
Does Morgan Stanley have a competitive moat?
Our standard moat model (based on ROIC, gross margins, and switching costs) does not apply to Financial Services companies. These firms compete on fundamentally different dimensions such as regulatory advantages, deposit cost structures, or property portfolios.
How do I buy MS stock?
MS shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MS
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MS a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Morgan Stanley as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Morgan Stanley?
The current CEO of Morgan Stanley is Mr. Edward N. Pick.
What is MS's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $11.04
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $12.60
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $11.82
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $12.66
Other Financial Services companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MS analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings