PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Financial Services · Credit Services
Is PayPal Holdings, Inc. a safe investment right now?
PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.93 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $43.04 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could PayPal Holdings, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.93 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives PYPL's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1661 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.405 | 1.4 | 0.57 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.084 | 3.3 | 0.28 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.787 | 0.6 | 0.47 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4138 | 1.0 | 0.41 |
How has PYPL's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.52 | Distress |
| 2023 | 1.66 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.81 | Gray |
| 2025 | 1.93 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from PYPL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is PayPal Holdings, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $5.38 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $5.41 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $5.32 | 33 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 9.5x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 8.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $53.06 (33 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does PayPal Holdings, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up PYPL's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is PYPL's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12.0% | — |
| 2023 | 18.7% | Rising |
| 2024 | 18.9% | Stable |
| 2025 | 22.3% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can PayPal Holdings, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 2.6%. FCF covers the dividend 0.0x. 2 consecutive years of payments.
PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $33.2B | $31.8B | $27.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | $5.2B | $4.1B | $2.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.6B | $6.8B | $5.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 46.6% | 46.1% | 50.0% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our PYPL analysis
PYPL earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.28. Revenue estimate: $8.06B. Our current Fair Value: $43.04 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
PYPL analyst consensus: 23% bullish (10 of 43 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 29 Hold, 4 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $53.06 (3.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $43.04.
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL paid $0.1400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 2.6%.
PYPL missed EPS estimates by 4.4%
Reported EPS: $1.23 vs estimate $1.29. Our Fair Value of $43.04 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL paid $0.1400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 2.6%.
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL beat EPS estimates by 11.1%
Reported EPS: $1.34 vs estimate $1.21. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $43.04 (16.0% below current price).
PYPL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL beat EPS estimates by 8.0%
Reported EPS: $1.40 vs estimate $1.30. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $43.04 (16.0% below current price).
PYPL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL beat EPS estimates by 14.5%
Reported EPS: $1.33 vs estimate $1.16. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $43.04 (16.0% below current price).
PYPL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL beat EPS estimates by 6.0%
Reported EPS: $1.19 vs estimate $1.12. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $43.04 (16.0% below current price).
PYPL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
PYPL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about PayPal Holdings, Inc.
What is PayPal Holdings, Inc. stock price today?
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) stock price is $51.22 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does PayPal Holdings, Inc. do?
PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide. It operates a two-sided network at scale that connects merchants and consumers that enables its customers to connect, transact, and send and receive payments through online and in person, as well as transfer and withdraw funds using various funding sources, such as bank accounts, PayPal or Venmo account balance, consumer credit and debit products, credit and debit cards, and cryptocurrencies, as well as other stored value products, including gift cards and eligible rewards.
What is PayPal Holdings, Inc. market cap?
PayPal Holdings, Inc. has a market capitalization of $47.16B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Financial Services sector.
What sector and industry is PYPL in?
PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically within the Credit Services industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol PYPL.
Is PYPL stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, PayPal Holdings, Inc. trades 19.0% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $43.04
- Current Price: $51.22
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is PYPL stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 33 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for PayPal Holdings, Inc. is $53.06, implying upside of 3.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $147.39
- Analyst Low Target: $32.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is PayPal Holdings, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for PayPal Holdings, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 2.9%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 0.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 4.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 9.2%
What are PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $33.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $5.2B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 46.6% | Declining |
What is PYPL's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 9.5x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 8.8x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 8.0x
How volatile is PYPL stock?
PayPal Holdings, Inc. has a beta of 1.41, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does PayPal Holdings, Inc. have?
PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $10.42B
- Total Debt: $12.30B
- Net Cash Position: $-1.87B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s free cash flow?
PayPal Holdings, Inc. generated $3.27B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $6.42B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does PayPal Holdings, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, PayPal Holdings, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.5%
- Payout Ratio: 2.6%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 2
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: 0.0%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: C
Is PayPal Holdings, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 1.93, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does PayPal Holdings, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
PayPal Holdings, Inc. scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is PYPL's return on equity (ROE)?
PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s return on equity is 25.7%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy PYPL stock?
PYPL shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol PYPL
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is PYPL a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies PayPal Holdings, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of PayPal Holdings, Inc.?
The current CEO of PayPal Holdings, Inc. is Mr. Enrique J. Lores.
What is PYPL's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $5.41
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $5.80
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $5.32
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $5.82
Other Financial Services companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
PYPL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings