CME Group Inc. (CME) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Is CME Group Inc. a safe investment right now?
CME Group Inc. is in the Financial Services sector — Altman Z-Score does not apply to this type of company. Our fair value estimate is $314.13 (Watch Zone).
Why the Altman Z-Score does not apply to CME Group Inc.
The Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing and non-financial companies. It uses ratios like Working Capital / Total Assets and Revenue / Total Assets that produce misleading results for Financial Services companies.
- Banks hold massive assets (loans) that inflate Total Assets, making WC/TA nearly zero — a false distress signal
- Utilities carry high regulated debt by design — the model misreads leverage as risk
- REITs use Funds From Operations (FFO), not Free Cash Flow — standard cash flow analysis doesn't apply
Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing companies and does not apply to banks, utilities, or REITs.
Note: A sector-specific financial health model for Financial Services companies is planned for a future update.
What is CME Group Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst Consensus Target | $314.13 | 15 Wall Street analysts |
| Analyst High / Low | $362.00 / $239.00 | Range of analyst price targets |
| Price / Book | 3.57x | Current market valuation vs book value |
| Return on Equity | 15.9% | Profitability relative to shareholder equity |
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Why standard moat analysis does not apply to CME Group Inc.
Our standard moat model uses ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and switching costs — metrics designed for product and service companies. Financial Services companies compete on fundamentally different dimensions.
- Banks — moat comes from deposit cost advantage, net interest margin stability, and fee income diversification
- Utilities — moat is a regulatory monopoly with guaranteed rate of return on invested capital
- REITs — moat comes from property portfolio quality, location, tenant mix, and cap rate advantages
Standard moat analysis (ROIC/gross margin/switching costs) does not reliably apply to Financial Services companies. Banks compete on net interest margin, utilities on regulated returns, and REITs on occupancy and cap rates.
Note: A sector-specific competitive analysis for Financial Services companies is planned for a future update.
Is CME Group Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can CME Group Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 43.1%. FCF covers the dividend 1.1x. 24 consecutive years of payments.
CME Group Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.5B | $6.1B | $5.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | $4.1B | $3.5B | $2.7B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.2B | $3.6B | $3.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 86.1% | 86.1% | 85.0% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our CME analysis
CME analyst consensus: 38% bullish (6 of 16 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell, 2 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $314.13 (9.9% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $314.13.
CME missed EPS estimates by 0.4%
Reported EPS: $3.36 vs estimate $3.37. Our Fair Value of $314.13 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
CME filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME paid $7.4500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 43.1%.
CME filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME beat EPS estimates by 23.2%
Reported EPS: $3.24 vs estimate $2.63. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $314.13 (9.9% above current price).
CME filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME paid $1.2500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 43.1%.
CME filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME beat EPS estimates by 2.0%
Reported EPS: $2.68 vs estimate $2.63. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $314.13 (9.9% above current price).
CME filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME paid $1.2500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 43.1%.
CME filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME beat EPS estimates by 0.6%
Reported EPS: $2.96 vs estimate $2.94. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $314.13 (9.9% above current price).
CME filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME paid $1.2500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 43.1%.
CME filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME missed EPS estimates by 0.3%
Reported EPS: $2.80 vs estimate $2.81. Our Fair Value of $314.13 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
CME filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME paid $1.2500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 43.1%.
CME filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CME beat EPS estimates by 3.0%
Reported EPS: $2.52 vs estimate $2.45. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $314.13 (9.9% above current price).
CME filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about CME Group Inc.
What is CME Group Inc. stock price today?
CME Group Inc. (CME) stock price is $285.71 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does CME Group Inc. do?
CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, and foreign exchange; and agricultural, energy, and metals commodities, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services. It provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges.
What is CME Group Inc. market cap?
CME Group Inc. has a market capitalization of $103.66B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Financial Services sector.
What sector and industry is CME in?
CME Group Inc. operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically within the Financial Data & Stock Exchanges industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol CME.
Is CME stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, CME Group Inc. trades 9.0% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $314.13
- Current Price: $285.71
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is CME stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 15 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for CME Group Inc. is $314.13, implying upside of 9.9% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $362.00
- Analyst Low Target: $239.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is CME Group Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for CME Group Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 9.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 10.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 3.6%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 4.7%
What are CME Group Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | $4.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 86.1% | Stable |
What is CME's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 24.4x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 22.1x
How volatile is CME stock?
CME Group Inc. has a beta of 0.30, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does CME Group Inc. have?
CME Group Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.72B
- Total Debt: $3.42B
- Net Cash Position: $-707.8M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
Does CME Group Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, CME Group Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 182.0%
- Payout Ratio: 43.1%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 24
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: 1.7%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is CME Group Inc. financially healthy?
The Altman Z-Score — the standard bankruptcy prediction model — is not applicable to Financial Services companies like CME Group Inc.. The formula uses ratios designed for manufacturing firms that produce misleading results for banks, utilities, and REITs.
Does CME Group Inc. have a competitive moat?
Our standard moat model (based on ROIC, gross margins, and switching costs) does not apply to Financial Services companies. These firms compete on fundamentally different dimensions such as regulatory advantages, deposit cost structures, or property portfolios.
What is CME's return on equity (ROE)?
CME Group Inc.'s return on equity is 15.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy CME stock?
CME shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol CME
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is CME a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies CME Group Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of CME Group Inc.?
The current CEO of CME Group Inc. is Mr. Terrence A. Duffy.
What is CME's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $11.71
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $12.94
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $12.37
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $12.96
Other Financial Services companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CME analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings