Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Is Cincinnati Financial Corporation a safe investment right now?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation is in the Financial Services sector — Altman Z-Score does not apply to this type of company. Our fair value estimate is $173.33 (Watch Zone).
Why the Altman Z-Score does not apply to Cincinnati Financial Corporation
The Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing and non-financial companies. It uses ratios like Working Capital / Total Assets and Revenue / Total Assets that produce misleading results for Financial Services companies.
- Banks hold massive assets (loans) that inflate Total Assets, making WC/TA nearly zero — a false distress signal
- Utilities carry high regulated debt by design — the model misreads leverage as risk
- REITs use Funds From Operations (FFO), not Free Cash Flow — standard cash flow analysis doesn't apply
Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing companies and does not apply to banks, utilities, or REITs.
Note: A sector-specific financial health model for Financial Services companies is planned for a future update.
What is Cincinnati Financial Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst Consensus Target | $173.33 | 6 Wall Street analysts |
| Analyst High / Low | $190.00 / $156.00 | Range of analyst price targets |
| Price / Book | 1.62x | Current market valuation vs book value |
| Return on Equity | 16.0% | Profitability relative to shareholder equity |
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Why standard moat analysis does not apply to Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Our standard moat model uses ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and switching costs — metrics designed for product and service companies. Financial Services companies compete on fundamentally different dimensions.
- Banks — moat comes from deposit cost advantage, net interest margin stability, and fee income diversification
- Utilities — moat is a regulatory monopoly with guaranteed rate of return on invested capital
- REITs — moat comes from property portfolio quality, location, tenant mix, and cap rate advantages
Standard moat analysis (ROIC/gross margin/switching costs) does not reliably apply to Financial Services companies. Banks compete on net interest margin, utilities on regulated returns, and REITs on occupancy and cap rates.
Note: A sector-specific competitive analysis for Financial Services companies is planned for a future update.
Is Cincinnati Financial Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Cincinnati Financial Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 22.9%. FCF covers the dividend 4.8x. 41 consecutive years of payments.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.6B | $11.3B | $6.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.4B | $2.3B | −$0.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.1B | $2.6B | $2.0B | Rising |
Recent events that affect our CINF analysis
CINF earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.94. Revenue estimate: $2.97B. Our current Fair Value: $173.33 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
CINF analyst consensus: 50% bullish (4 of 8 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $173.33 (4.2% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $173.33.
CINF paid $0.9400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 22.9%.
CINF filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF beat EPS estimates by 16.6%
Reported EPS: $3.37 vs estimate $2.89. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $173.33 (4.2% above current price).
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF paid $0.8700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 22.9%.
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF beat EPS estimates by 38.4%
Reported EPS: $2.85 vs estimate $2.06. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $173.33 (4.2% above current price).
CINF filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF paid $0.8700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 22.9%.
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF beat EPS estimates by 42.0%
Reported EPS: $1.97 vs estimate $1.39. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $173.33 (4.2% above current price).
CINF filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF paid $0.8700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 22.9%.
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF beat EPS estimates by 60.7%
Reported EPS: $-0.24 vs estimate $-0.61. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $173.33 (4.2% above current price).
CINF filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF paid $0.8700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 22.9%.
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF beat EPS estimates by 67.1%
Reported EPS: $3.14 vs estimate $1.88. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $173.33 (4.2% above current price).
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CINF filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Cincinnati Financial Corporation
What is Cincinnati Financial Corporation stock price today?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) stock price is $166.27 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Cincinnati Financial Corporation do?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation provides property casualty insurance products in the United States. It operates through five segments: Commercial Lines Insurance, Personal Lines Insurance, Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance, Life Insurance, and Investments. The Commercial Lines Insurance segment offers coverage for commercial casualty and property, commercial auto, and workers' compensation.
What is Cincinnati Financial Corporation market cap?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation has a market capitalization of $25.89B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Financial Services sector.
What sector and industry is CINF in?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically within the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol CINF.
Is CINF stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Cincinnati Financial Corporation trades 4.1% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $173.33
- Current Price: $166.27
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is CINF stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 6 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Cincinnati Financial Corporation is $173.33, implying upside of 4.2% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $190.00
- Analyst Low Target: $156.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Cincinnati Financial Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Cincinnati Financial Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): -3.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 7.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 5.2%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 8.2%
What are Cincinnati Financial Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.1B | Rising |
What is CINF's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 11.0x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 18.0x
How volatile is CINF stock?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation has a beta of 0.64, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Cincinnati Financial Corporation have?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.58B
- Total Debt: $886.0M
- Net Cash Position: $693.0M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Cincinnati Financial Corporation's free cash flow?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation generated $6.14B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $3.11B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Cincinnati Financial Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Cincinnati Financial Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.1%
- Payout Ratio: 22.9%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 41
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -17.9%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Cincinnati Financial Corporation financially healthy?
The Altman Z-Score — the standard bankruptcy prediction model — is not applicable to Financial Services companies like Cincinnati Financial Corporation. The formula uses ratios designed for manufacturing firms that produce misleading results for banks, utilities, and REITs.
Does Cincinnati Financial Corporation have a competitive moat?
Our standard moat model (based on ROIC, gross margins, and switching costs) does not apply to Financial Services companies. These firms compete on fundamentally different dimensions such as regulatory advantages, deposit cost structures, or property portfolios.
What is CINF's return on equity (ROE)?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation's return on equity is 16.0%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy CINF stock?
CINF shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol CINF
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is CINF a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Cincinnati Financial Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Cincinnati Financial Corporation?
The current CEO of Cincinnati Financial Corporation is Mr. Stephen Michael Spray.
What is CINF's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $15.16
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $9.22
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $8.52
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $9.22
Other Financial Services companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CINF analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings