Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Financial Services · Credit Services
Is Mastercard Incorporated a safe investment right now?
Mastercard Incorporated's Altman Z-Score of 9.88 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $465.05 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.
Could Mastercard Incorporated go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 9.88 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives MA's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0147 | 1.2 | 0.02 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 1.5702 | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.3564 | 3.3 | 1.18 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 9.8099 | 0.6 | 5.89 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.6055 | 1.0 | 0.61 |
How has MA's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12.07 | Safe |
| 2023 | 11.54 | Safe |
| 2024 | 10.38 | Safe |
| 2025 | 9.88 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from MA's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Mastercard Incorporated actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $17.75 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $16.52 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $19.60 | 35 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 30.9x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 26.2x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $654.66 (35 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Mastercard Incorporated have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up MA's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is MA's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 60.0% | — |
| 2023 | 60.0% | Stable |
| 2024 | 60.0% | Stable |
| 2025 | 60.0% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Mastercard Incorporated's dividend safe?
Can Mastercard Incorporated afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 18.4%. FCF covers the dividend 5.3x. 21 consecutive years of payments.
Mastercard Incorporated's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.8B | $28.2B | $22.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $15.0B | $12.9B | $9.9B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $16.4B | $13.6B | $10.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 77.9% | 76.3% | 76.3% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our MA analysis
MA earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $4.42. Revenue estimate: $8.26B. Our current Fair Value: $465.05 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
MA analyst consensus: 92% bullish (35 of 38 analysts)
7 Strong Buy, 28 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $654.66 (28.3% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $465.05.
MA paid $0.8700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 18.4%.
MA filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA beat EPS estimates by 12.3%
Reported EPS: $4.76 vs estimate $4.24. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $465.05 (8.8% below current price).
MA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA paid $0.8700/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 18.4%.
MA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA beat EPS estimates by 1.5%
Reported EPS: $4.38 vs estimate $4.31. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $465.05 (8.8% below current price).
MA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA paid $0.7600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 18.4%.
MA beat EPS estimates by 3.1%
Reported EPS: $4.15 vs estimate $4.02. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $465.05 (8.8% below current price).
MA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA paid $0.7600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 18.4%.
MA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA beat EPS estimates by 4.8%
Reported EPS: $3.73 vs estimate $3.56. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $465.05 (8.8% below current price).
MA filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA paid $0.7600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 18.4%.
MA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA beat EPS estimates by 3.5%
Reported EPS: $3.82 vs estimate $3.69. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $465.05 (8.8% below current price).
MA filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MA paid $0.7600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 18.4%.
Common questions about Mastercard Incorporated
What is Mastercard Incorporated stock price today?
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) stock price is $510.16 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Mastercard Incorporated do?
Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. It offers products and services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts; prepaid programs services; consumer bill payment services; and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions. It also provides solutions that enable businesses or governments to make payments to businesses, including Virtual Card Number, which is generated dynamically from an existing account and leverages the credit limit of the funding account; and a platform to optimize supplier payment enablement campaigns for financial institutions.
What is Mastercard Incorporated market cap?
Mastercard Incorporated has a market capitalization of $455.29B, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Financial Services sector.
What sector and industry is MA in?
Mastercard Incorporated operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically within the Credit Services industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol MA.
Is MA stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Mastercard Incorporated trades 9.7% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $465.05
- Current Price: $510.16
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is MA stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 35 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Mastercard Incorporated is $654.66, implying upside of 28.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $735.00
- Analyst Low Target: $550.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Mastercard Incorporated revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Mastercard Incorporated:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 12.8%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 15.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 12.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 15.7%
What are Mastercard Incorporated's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $15.0B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $16.4B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 77.9% | Stable |
What is MA's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 30.9x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 22.5x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 26.2x
How volatile is MA stock?
Mastercard Incorporated has a beta of 0.83, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Mastercard Incorporated have?
Mastercard Incorporated's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $10.90B
- Total Debt: $19.83B
- Net Cash Position: $-8.94B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Mastercard Incorporated's free cash flow?
Mastercard Incorporated generated $16.27B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $17.65B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Mastercard Incorporated pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Mastercard Incorporated pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.6%
- Payout Ratio: 18.4%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 21
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -0.2%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Mastercard Incorporated at risk of going bankrupt?
Mastercard Incorporated's Altman Z-Score is 9.88, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Mastercard Incorporated have a durable competitive advantage?
Mastercard Incorporated scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is MA's return on equity (ROE)?
Mastercard Incorporated's return on equity is 209.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy MA stock?
MA shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MA
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MA a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Mastercard Incorporated as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Mastercard Incorporated?
The current CEO of Mastercard Incorporated is Mr. Michael Miebach.
What is MA's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $16.53
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $22.67
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $19.60
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $22.67
Other Financial Services companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MA analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings