Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Financial Services · Insurance - Life
Is Aflac Incorporated a safe investment right now?
Aflac Incorporated is in the Financial Services sector — Altman Z-Score does not apply to this type of company. Our fair value estimate is $111.86 (Fairly Valued).
Why the Altman Z-Score does not apply to Aflac Incorporated
The Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing and non-financial companies. It uses ratios like Working Capital / Total Assets and Revenue / Total Assets that produce misleading results for Financial Services companies.
- Banks hold massive assets (loans) that inflate Total Assets, making WC/TA nearly zero — a false distress signal
- Utilities carry high regulated debt by design — the model misreads leverage as risk
- REITs use Funds From Operations (FFO), not Free Cash Flow — standard cash flow analysis doesn't apply
Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing companies and does not apply to banks, utilities, or REITs.
Note: A sector-specific financial health model for Financial Services companies is planned for a future update.
What is Aflac Incorporated actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst Consensus Target | $111.86 | 14 Wall Street analysts |
| Analyst High / Low | $130.00 / $97.00 | Range of analyst price targets |
| Price / Book | 2.02x | Current market valuation vs book value |
| Return on Equity | 13.1% | Profitability relative to shareholder equity |
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Why standard moat analysis does not apply to Aflac Incorporated
Our standard moat model uses ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and switching costs — metrics designed for product and service companies. Financial Services companies compete on fundamentally different dimensions.
- Banks — moat comes from deposit cost advantage, net interest margin stability, and fee income diversification
- Utilities — moat is a regulatory monopoly with guaranteed rate of return on invested capital
- REITs — moat comes from property portfolio quality, location, tenant mix, and cap rate advantages
Standard moat analysis (ROIC/gross margin/switching costs) does not reliably apply to Financial Services companies. Banks compete on net interest margin, utilities on regulated returns, and REITs on occupancy and cap rates.
Note: A sector-specific competitive analysis for Financial Services companies is planned for a future update.
Is Aflac Incorporated's dividend safe?
Can Aflac Incorporated afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 34.0%. FCF covers the dividend 4.0x. 43 consecutive years of payments.
Aflac Incorporated's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.4B | $19.1B | $19.2B | Declining |
| Net Income | $3.6B | $5.4B | $4.4B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.6B | $2.7B | $3.9B | Declining |
Recent events that affect our AFL analysis
AFL earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.80. Revenue estimate: $4.29B. Our current Fair Value: $111.86 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
AFL analyst consensus: 21% bullish (3 of 14 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 8 Hold, 2 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $111.86 (2.5% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $111.86.
AFL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFL paid $0.6100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 34.0%.
AFL missed EPS estimates by 7.3%
Reported EPS: $1.57 vs estimate $1.69. Our Fair Value of $111.86 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFL paid $0.5800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 34.0%.
AFL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFL beat EPS estimates by 40.2%
Reported EPS: $2.49 vs estimate $1.78. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $111.86 (2.5% below current price).
AFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFL paid $0.5800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 34.0%.
AFL beat EPS estimates by 4.3%
Reported EPS: $1.78 vs estimate $1.71. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $111.86 (2.5% below current price).
AFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFL paid $0.5800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 34.0%.
AFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFL missed EPS estimates by 0.8%
Reported EPS: $1.66 vs estimate $1.67. Our Fair Value of $111.86 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AFL paid $0.5800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 34.0%.
AFL missed EPS estimates by 3.5%
Reported EPS: $1.56 vs estimate $1.62. Our Fair Value of $111.86 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AFL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Aflac Incorporated
What is Aflac Incorporated stock price today?
Aflac Incorporated (AFL) stock price is $114.75 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Aflac Incorporated do?
Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates in two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care, whole life, and GIFT insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment, and Tsumitasu insurance products in Japan.
What is Aflac Incorporated market cap?
Aflac Incorporated has a market capitalization of $60.14B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Financial Services sector.
What sector and industry is AFL in?
Aflac Incorporated operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically within the Insurance - Life industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol AFL.
Is AFL stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Aflac Incorporated trades 2.6% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $111.86
- Current Price: $114.75
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is AFL stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 14 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Aflac Incorporated is $111.86, implying downside of 2.5% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $130.00
- Analyst Low Target: $97.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Aflac Incorporated revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Aflac Incorporated:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): -2.0%
- EPS growth (current year est.): -3.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 1.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 6.5%
What are Aflac Incorporated's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.4B | Declining |
| Net Income | $3.6B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.6B | Declining |
What is AFL's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 16.8x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 14.9x
How volatile is AFL stock?
Aflac Incorporated has a beta of 0.65, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Aflac Incorporated have?
Aflac Incorporated's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $7.63B
- Total Debt: $12.59B
- Net Cash Position: $-4.95B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Aflac Incorporated's free cash flow?
Aflac Incorporated generated $5.18B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.56B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Aflac Incorporated pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Aflac Incorporated pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 2.0%
- Payout Ratio: 34.0%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 43
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -14.3%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Aflac Incorporated financially healthy?
The Altman Z-Score — the standard bankruptcy prediction model — is not applicable to Financial Services companies like Aflac Incorporated. The formula uses ratios designed for manufacturing firms that produce misleading results for banks, utilities, and REITs.
Does Aflac Incorporated have a competitive moat?
Our standard moat model (based on ROIC, gross margins, and switching costs) does not apply to Financial Services companies. These firms compete on fundamentally different dimensions such as regulatory advantages, deposit cost structures, or property portfolios.
What is AFL's return on equity (ROE)?
Aflac Incorporated's return on equity is 13.1%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy AFL stock?
AFL shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol AFL
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is AFL a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Aflac Incorporated as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Aflac Incorporated?
The current CEO of Aflac Incorporated is Mr. Daniel Paul Amos.
What is AFL's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $6.82
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $7.71
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $7.24
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $7.71
Other Financial Services companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
AFL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings