Newmont Corporation (NEM) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Basic Materials · Gold
Is Newmont Corporation a safe investment right now?
Newmont Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 4.47 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $112.79 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 2.9/5 stars.
Could Newmont Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.47 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives NEM's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1287 | 1.2 | 0.15 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0601 | 1.4 | 0.08 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.2026 | 3.3 | 0.67 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 5.2723 | 0.6 | 3.16 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3969 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
How has NEM's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.32 | Safe |
| 2023 | 2.84 | Gray |
| 2024 | 3.47 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.47 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from NEM's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Newmont Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $7.57 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $6.39 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $9.34 | 20 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 17.5x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 14.9x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $140.06 (20 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Newmont Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
What makes up NEM's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is NEM's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0.7% | — |
| 2023 | -4.7% | Declining |
| 2024 | 12.9% | Rising |
| 2025 | 29.7% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Newmont Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Newmont Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 15.7%. FCF covers the dividend 0.6x. 40 consecutive years of payments.
Newmont Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.7B | $18.7B | $11.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $7.1B | $3.3B | −$0.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $7.3B | $3.0B | $1.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 53.2% | 38.2% | 27.4% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our NEM analysis
NEM earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.22. Revenue estimate: $6.44B. Our current Fair Value: $112.79 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
NEM analyst consensus: 81% bullish (17 of 21 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $140.06 (25.2% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $112.79.
NEM paid $0.2600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 15.7%.
NEM beat EPS estimates by 24.2%
Reported EPS: $2.52 vs estimate $2.03. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $112.79 (0.8% above current price).
NEM filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
NEM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NEM paid $0.2500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 15.7%.
NEM beat EPS estimates by 18.8%
Reported EPS: $1.71 vs estimate $1.44. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $112.79 (0.8% above current price).
NEM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NEM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NEM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NEM paid $0.2500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 15.7%.
NEM beat EPS estimates by 22.9%
Reported EPS: $1.43 vs estimate $1.16. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $112.79 (0.8% above current price).
NEM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NEM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NEM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NEM paid $0.2500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 15.7%.
NEM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NEM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NEM beat EPS estimates by 37.1%
Reported EPS: $1.25 vs estimate $0.91. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $112.79 (0.8% above current price).
NEM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NEM paid $0.2500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 15.7%.
NEM filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
NEM beat EPS estimates by 35.8%
Reported EPS: $1.40 vs estimate $1.03. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $112.79 (0.8% above current price).
NEM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Newmont Corporation
What is Newmont Corporation stock price today?
Newmont Corporation (NEM) stock price is $111.85 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Newmont Corporation do?
Newmont Corporation operates as a gold producer. It also explores for copper, silver, lead, zinc, and other metals. It has operations and/or assets in the United States, Papua New Guinea, Australia, Ghana, Suriname, Argentina, Dominican Republic, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Mexico, and Canada.
What is Newmont Corporation market cap?
Newmont Corporation has a market capitalization of $121.68B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Basic Materials sector.
What sector and industry is NEM in?
Newmont Corporation operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically within the Gold industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol NEM.
Is NEM stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Newmont Corporation trades 0.8% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $112.79
- Current Price: $111.85
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is NEM stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 20 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Newmont Corporation is $140.06, implying upside of 25.2% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $176.00
- Analyst Low Target: $72.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Newmont Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Newmont Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 24.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 35.6%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 4.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 14.5%
What are Newmont Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $7.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $7.3B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 53.2% | Rising |
What is NEM's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 17.5x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 10.5x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 14.9x
How volatile is NEM stock?
Newmont Corporation has a beta of 0.47, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Newmont Corporation have?
Newmont Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $8.24B
- Total Debt: $5.70B
- Net Cash Position: $2.54B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Newmont Corporation's free cash flow?
Newmont Corporation generated $9.50B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $10.33B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Newmont Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Newmont Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.9%
- Payout Ratio: 15.7%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 40
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -34.8%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Newmont Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Newmont Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 4.47, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Newmont Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Newmont Corporation scores 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is NEM's return on equity (ROE)?
Newmont Corporation's return on equity is 22.3%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy NEM stock?
NEM shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol NEM
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is NEM a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Newmont Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Newmont Corporation?
The current CEO of Newmont Corporation is Ms. Natascha Viljoen BEng (PrEng), EMBA.
What is NEM's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $6.39
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $10.68
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $9.34
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $10.70
Other Basic Materials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
NEM analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings