Ecolab Inc. (ECL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals
Is Ecolab Inc. a safe investment right now?
Ecolab Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 4.84 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $243.35 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could Ecolab Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.84 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives ECL's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.017 | 1.2 | 0.02 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5197 | 1.4 | 0.73 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1156 | 3.3 | 0.38 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 5.1003 | 0.6 | 3.06 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.6512 | 1.0 | 0.65 |
How has ECL's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.79 | Safe |
| 2023 | 5.04 | Safe |
| 2024 | 5.27 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.84 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from ECL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Ecolab Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $7.75 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $7.28 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $8.45 | 21 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 36.9x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 31.4x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $318.57 (21 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Ecolab Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up ECL's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is ECL's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10.1% | — |
| 2023 | 13.0% | Rising |
| 2024 | 17.8% | Rising |
| 2025 | 15.8% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Ecolab Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Ecolab Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 36.8%. FCF covers the dividend 1.8x. 41 consecutive years of payments.
Ecolab Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.1B | $15.7B | $14.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.1B | $2.1B | $1.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.9B | $1.8B | $1.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 44.5% | 43.5% | 37.8% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our ECL analysis
ECL earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.70. Revenue estimate: $4.03B. Our current Fair Value: $243.35 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
ECL analyst consensus: 70% bullish (19 of 27 analysts)
6 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 8 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $318.57 (18.5% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $243.35.
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL paid $0.7300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 36.8%.
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL beat EPS estimates by 0.7%
Reported EPS: $2.08 vs estimate $2.07. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $243.35 (9.5% below current price).
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL paid $0.7300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 36.8%.
ECL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL missed EPS estimates by 0.1%
Reported EPS: $2.07 vs estimate $2.07. Our Fair Value of $243.35 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL paid $0.6500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 36.8%.
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL missed EPS estimates by 0.3%
Reported EPS: $1.89 vs estimate $1.90. Our Fair Value of $243.35 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL paid $0.6500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 36.8%.
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL beat EPS estimates by 0.1%
Reported EPS: $1.50 vs estimate $1.50. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $243.35 (9.5% below current price).
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL paid $0.6500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 36.8%.
ECL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
ECL beat EPS estimates by 0.7%
Reported EPS: $1.81 vs estimate $1.80. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $243.35 (9.5% below current price).
ECL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Ecolab Inc.
What is Ecolab Inc. stock price today?
Ecolab Inc. (ECL) stock price is $268.93 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Ecolab Inc. do?
Ecolab Inc. provides water, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions and services in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Global Water, Global Institutional & Specialty, Global Pest Elimination, and Global Life Sciences.
What is Ecolab Inc. market cap?
Ecolab Inc. has a market capitalization of $75.95B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Basic Materials sector.
What sector and industry is ECL in?
Ecolab Inc. operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically within the Specialty Chemicals industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol ECL.
Is ECL stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Ecolab Inc. trades 10.5% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $243.35
- Current Price: $268.93
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is ECL stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 21 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Ecolab Inc. is $318.57, implying upside of 18.5% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $352.00
- Analyst Low Target: $270.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Ecolab Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Ecolab Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 10.2%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 12.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 6.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 14.5%
What are Ecolab Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.1B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.9B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 44.5% | Rising |
What is ECL's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 36.9x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 27.8x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 31.4x
How volatile is ECL stock?
Ecolab Inc. has a beta of 1.02, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Ecolab Inc. have?
Ecolab Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $646.2M
- Total Debt: $9.00B
- Net Cash Position: $-8.35B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Ecolab Inc.'s free cash flow?
Ecolab Inc. generated $1.64B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.95B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Ecolab Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Ecolab Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.0%
- Payout Ratio: 36.8%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 41
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -17.8%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Ecolab Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Ecolab Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 4.84, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Ecolab Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Ecolab Inc. scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is ECL's return on equity (ROE)?
Ecolab Inc.'s return on equity is 22.5%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy ECL stock?
ECL shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol ECL
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is ECL a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Ecolab Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Ecolab Inc.?
The current CEO of Ecolab Inc. is Mr. Christophe Beck.
What is ECL's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $7.29
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $9.67
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $8.45
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $9.67
Other Basic Materials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
ECL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings