Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Basic Materials · Building Materials
Is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 3.76 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $607.37 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.3/5 stars.
Could Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.76 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives MLM's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1228 | 1.2 | 0.15 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3422 | 1.4 | 0.48 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0778 | 3.3 | 0.26 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 4.2444 | 0.6 | 2.55 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3287 | 1.0 | 0.33 |
How has MLM's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.98 | Safe |
| 2023 | 4.45 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.86 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.76 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from MLM's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $19.16 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $18.77 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $19.74 | 23 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 37.4x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 31.7x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $694.09 (23 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.3/5.
What makes up MLM's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is MLM's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10.3% | — |
| 2023 | 11.2% | Stable |
| 2024 | 17.1% | Rising |
| 2025 | 9.5% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 19.8%. FCF covers the dividend 3.4x. 33 consecutive years of payments.
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.2B | $5.7B | $6.2B | Stable |
| Net Income | $1.1B | $2.0B | $0.9B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0B | $0.6B | $0.5B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 30.7% | 28.9% | 23.1% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our MLM analysis
MLM earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.97. Revenue estimate: $1.31B. Our current Fair Value: $607.37 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
MLM analyst consensus: 64% bullish (14 of 22 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $694.09 (13.7% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $607.37.
MLM paid $0.8300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 19.8%.
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM missed EPS estimates by 7.2%
Reported EPS: $4.62 vs estimate $4.98. Our Fair Value of $607.37 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM paid $0.8300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 19.8%.
MLM beat EPS estimates by 0.6%
Reported EPS: $6.85 vs estimate $6.81. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $607.37 (0.5% below current price).
MLM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM paid $0.8300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 19.8%.
MLM beat EPS estimates by 3.2%
Reported EPS: $5.43 vs estimate $5.26. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $607.37 (0.5% below current price).
MLM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM paid $0.7900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 19.8%.
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM beat EPS estimates by 0.5%
Reported EPS: $1.90 vs estimate $1.89. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $607.37 (0.5% below current price).
MLM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM paid $0.7900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 19.8%.
MLM filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MLM beat EPS estimates by 5.5%
Reported EPS: $4.81 vs estimate $4.56. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $607.37 (0.5% below current price).
MLM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.
What is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. stock price today?
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) stock price is $610.64 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. do?
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc., a natural resource-based building materials company, supplies aggregates and heavy-side building materials to the construction industry in the United States and internationally. It operates through East Group and West Group segments. It offers crushed stone, sand, and gravel products; ready mixed concrete and asphalt; and paving products and services for use in the infrastructure projects, and nonresidential and residential construction projects, as well as in the railroad, agricultural, utility, and environmental industries.
What is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. market cap?
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. has a market capitalization of $36.83B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Basic Materials sector.
What sector and industry is MLM in?
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically within the Building Materials industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol MLM.
Is MLM stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. trades 0.5% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $607.37
- Current Price: $610.64
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is MLM stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 23 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is $694.09, implying upside of 13.7% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $804.00
- Analyst Low Target: $440.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 14.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 5.2%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 6.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 18.1%
What are Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.2B | Stable |
| Net Income | $1.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 30.7% | Rising |
What is MLM's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 37.4x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 26.3x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 31.7x
How volatile is MLM stock?
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. has a beta of 1.19, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. have?
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $67.0M
- Total Debt: $6.01B
- Net Cash Position: $-5.94B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. generated $-715.8M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.78B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.5%
- Payout Ratio: 19.8%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 33
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -18.9%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 3.76, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. scores 3.3/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is MLM's return on equity (ROE)?
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s return on equity is 10.2%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy MLM stock?
MLM shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MLM
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MLM a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.?
The current CEO of Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is Mr. C. Howard Nye J.D..
What is MLM's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $16.35
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $23.25
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $19.74
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $23.32
Other Basic Materials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MLM analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings