Nucor Corporation (NUE) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Basic Materials · Steel
Is Nucor Corporation a safe investment right now?
Nucor Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 4.96 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $233.53 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Nucor Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.96 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives NUE's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2211 | 1.2 | 0.27 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.8974 | 1.4 | 1.26 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.078 | 3.3 | 0.26 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 3.7599 | 0.6 | 2.26 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.9256 | 1.0 | 0.93 |
How has NUE's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6.06 | Safe |
| 2023 | 5.35 | Safe |
| 2024 | 5.06 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.96 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from NUE's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Nucor Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $9.65 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $7.52 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $12.85 | 13 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 28.5x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 24.2x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $192.55 (13 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Nucor Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up NUE's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is NUE's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 42.2% | — |
| 2023 | 23.6% | Declining |
| 2024 | 11.6% | Declining |
| 2025 | 9.8% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Nucor Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Nucor Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 29.4%. FCF covers the dividend 15.2x. 44 consecutive years of payments.
Nucor Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.5B | $30.7B | $41.5B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.7B | $2.0B | $7.6B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.2B | $0.8B | $8.1B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 11.9% | 13.4% | 30.1% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our NUE analysis
NUE earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.79. Revenue estimate: $8.86B. Our current Fair Value: $233.53 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
NUE analyst consensus: 80% bullish (12 of 15 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $192.55 (10.1% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $233.53.
NUE paid $0.5600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 29.4%.
NUE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE missed EPS estimates by 4.4%
Reported EPS: $1.73 vs estimate $1.81. Our Fair Value of $233.53 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
NUE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE paid $0.5600/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 29.4%.
NUE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE beat EPS estimates by 21.3%
Reported EPS: $2.63 vs estimate $2.17. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $233.53 (9.0% above current price).
NUE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE paid $0.5500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 29.4%.
NUE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE beat EPS estimates by 0.3%
Reported EPS: $2.65 vs estimate $2.64. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $233.53 (9.0% above current price).
NUE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE paid $0.5500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 29.4%.
NUE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE beat EPS estimates by 16.9%
Reported EPS: $0.77 vs estimate $0.66. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $233.53 (9.0% above current price).
NUE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE paid $0.5500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 29.4%.
NUE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
NUE beat EPS estimates by 97.0%
Reported EPS: $1.22 vs estimate $0.62. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $233.53 (9.0% above current price).
NUE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Nucor Corporation
What is Nucor Corporation stock price today?
Nucor Corporation (NUE) stock price is $214.26 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Nucor Corporation do?
Nucor Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of steel and steel products. It operates in three segments: Steel Mills, Steel Products, and Raw Materials. The Steel Mills segment produces hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized sheet steel products; plate steel products; wide-flange beams, beam blanks, and H-piling and sheet piling structural steel products; and bar steel products, such as blooms, billets, concrete reinforcing and merchant bars, and engineered special bar quality products.
What is Nucor Corporation market cap?
Nucor Corporation has a market capitalization of $48.80B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Basic Materials sector.
What sector and industry is NUE in?
Nucor Corporation operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically within the Steel industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol NUE.
Is NUE stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Nucor Corporation trades 8.2% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $233.53
- Current Price: $214.26
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is NUE stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 13 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Nucor Corporation is $192.55, implying downside of 10.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $225.00
- Analyst Low Target: $138.17
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Nucor Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Nucor Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 11.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 66.7%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 3.6%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 8.1%
What are Nucor Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.5B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.7B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.2B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 11.9% | Declining |
What is NUE's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 28.5x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 15.2x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 24.2x
How volatile is NUE stock?
Nucor Corporation has a beta of 1.75, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Nucor Corporation have?
Nucor Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.70B
- Total Debt: $7.25B
- Net Cash Position: $-4.55B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Nucor Corporation's free cash flow?
Nucor Corporation generated $-903.4M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $3.23B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Nucor Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Nucor Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.1%
- Payout Ratio: 29.4%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 44
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -20.1%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Nucor Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Nucor Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 4.96, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Nucor Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Nucor Corporation scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is NUE's return on equity (ROE)?
Nucor Corporation's return on equity is 9.4%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy NUE stock?
NUE shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol NUE
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is NUE a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Nucor Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Nucor Corporation?
The current CEO of Nucor Corporation is Mr. Leon J. Topalian.
What is NUE's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $7.52
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $14.12
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $12.85
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $13.89
Other Basic Materials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
NUE analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings