Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Basic Materials · Copper
Is Freeport-McMoRan Inc. a safe investment right now?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 3.24 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $84.10 (Strong Buy Zone). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Freeport-McMoRan Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.24 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives FCX's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1336 | 1.2 | 0.16 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0238 | 1.4 | 0.03 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1159 | 3.3 | 0.38 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 3.6904 | 0.6 | 2.21 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4455 | 1.0 | 0.45 |
How has FCX's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.34 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.39 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.39 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.24 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from FCX's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Freeport-McMoRan Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $2.14 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $1.52 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $3.06 | 21 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 46.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 39.3x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $69.21 (21 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Freeport-McMoRan Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up FCX's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is FCX's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 27.8% | — |
| 2023 | 25.0% | Declining |
| 2024 | 27.2% | Rising |
| 2025 | 23.8% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Freeport-McMoRan Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 39.5%. FCF covers the dividend 1.9x. 25 consecutive years of payments.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $25.9B | $25.5B | $22.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.2B | $1.9B | $3.5B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | $2.4B | $1.7B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 28.2% | 30.1% | 33.8% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our FCX analysis
FCX earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.47. Revenue estimate: $5.96B. Our current Fair Value: $84.10 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
FCX analyst consensus: 86% bullish (19 of 22 analysts)
6 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $69.21 (1.6% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $84.10.
FCX paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 39.5%.
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX beat EPS estimates by 46.7%
Reported EPS: $0.47 vs estimate $0.32. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $84.10 (19.5% above current price).
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 39.5%.
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX beat EPS estimates by 22.8%
Reported EPS: $0.50 vs estimate $0.41. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $84.10 (19.5% above current price).
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 39.5%.
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX beat EPS estimates by 21.8%
Reported EPS: $0.54 vs estimate $0.44. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $84.10 (19.5% above current price).
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 39.5%.
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX beat EPS estimates by 4.6%
Reported EPS: $0.24 vs estimate $0.23. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $84.10 (19.5% above current price).
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 39.5%.
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX beat EPS estimates by 43.2%
Reported EPS: $0.31 vs estimate $0.22. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $84.10 (19.5% above current price).
FCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
FCX paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 39.5%.
Common questions about Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
What is Freeport-McMoRan Inc. stock price today?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) stock price is $70.36 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Freeport-McMoRan Inc. do?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. It primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals.
What is Freeport-McMoRan Inc. market cap?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. has a market capitalization of $101.12B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Basic Materials sector.
What sector and industry is FCX in?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically within the Copper industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol FCX.
Is FCX stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. trades 16.3% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $84.10
- Current Price: $70.36
- Valuation Zone: Strong Buy Zone
What is FCX stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 21 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is $69.21, implying downside of 1.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $81.00
- Analyst Low Target: $30.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Freeport-McMoRan Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Freeport-McMoRan Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 15.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 72.9%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 20.0%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 32.0%
What are Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $25.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.2B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 28.2% | Declining |
What is FCX's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 46.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 17.4x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 39.3x
How volatile is FCX stock?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. has a beta of 1.47, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Freeport-McMoRan Inc. have?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $3.82B
- Total Debt: $10.49B
- Net Cash Position: $-6.67B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s free cash flow?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. generated $1.56B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $5.61B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Freeport-McMoRan Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.9%
- Payout Ratio: 39.5%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 25
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: 5.9%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Freeport-McMoRan Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 3.24, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Freeport-McMoRan Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is FCX's return on equity (ROE)?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s return on equity is 14.0%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy FCX stock?
FCX shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol FCX
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is FCX a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Freeport-McMoRan Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Freeport-McMoRan Inc.?
The current CEO of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is Ms. Kathleen Lynne Quirk.
What is FCX's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $1.52
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $4.04
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $3.06
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $4.04
Other Basic Materials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
FCX analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings