Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Basic Materials · Steel
Is Steel Dynamics, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 5.72 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $225.01 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.1/5 stars.
Could Steel Dynamics, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 5.72 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives STLD's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2657 | 1.2 | 0.32 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.9555 | 1.4 | 1.34 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0952 | 3.3 | 0.31 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 4.4002 | 0.6 | 2.64 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.107 | 1.0 | 1.11 |
How has STLD's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 7.62 | Safe |
| 2023 | 6.88 | Safe |
| 2024 | 6.58 | Safe |
| 2025 | 5.72 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from STLD's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Steel Dynamics, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $10.87 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $7.99 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $14.98 | 11 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 24.4x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 20.7x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $197.61 (11 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Steel Dynamics, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up STLD's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is STLD's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 45.6% | — |
| 2023 | 27.6% | Declining |
| 2024 | 16.8% | Declining |
| 2025 | 11.9% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Steel Dynamics, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 21.8%. FCF covers the dividend 15.0x. 23 consecutive years of payments.
Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.2B | $17.5B | $22.3B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.2B | $1.5B | $3.9B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.5B | −$0.0B | $3.6B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 13.2% | 16.0% | 27.5% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our STLD analysis
STLD earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $4.67. Revenue estimate: $5.89B. Our current Fair Value: $225.01 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
STLD analyst consensus: 73% bullish (8 of 11 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $197.61 (13.1% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $225.01.
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD missed EPS estimates by 0.2%
Reported EPS: $2.78 vs estimate $2.79. Our Fair Value of $225.01 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
STLD paid $0.5300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.8%.
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD beat EPS estimates by 7.9%
Reported EPS: $1.82 vs estimate $1.69. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $225.01 (1.1% below current price).
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD paid $0.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.8%.
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD beat EPS estimates by 4.2%
Reported EPS: $2.74 vs estimate $2.63. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $225.01 (1.1% below current price).
STLD paid $0.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.8%.
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD missed EPS estimates by 3.5%
Reported EPS: $2.01 vs estimate $2.08. Our Fair Value of $225.01 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
STLD paid $0.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.8%.
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD beat EPS estimates by 2.3%
Reported EPS: $1.44 vs estimate $1.41. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $225.01 (1.1% below current price).
STLD paid $0.5000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.8%.
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STLD beat EPS estimates by 5.5%
Reported EPS: $1.36 vs estimate $1.29. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $225.01 (1.1% below current price).
Common questions about Steel Dynamics, Inc.
What is Steel Dynamics, Inc. stock price today?
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) stock price is $227.46 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Steel Dynamics, Inc. do?
Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through four segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, Steel Fabrication Operations, and Aluminum Operations. The Steel Operations segment offers hot rolled, cold rolled, and coated steel products; parallel flange beams and channel sections, large unequal leg angles, and reinforcing steel bars, standard strength carbon, intermediate alloy hardness, and premium grade rail products; engineered special-bar-quality products, merchant-bar-quality products, and other engineered round steel bars; channels, angles, flats, merchant rounds, and reinforcing steel bars; and specialty shapes and light structural steel products.
What is Steel Dynamics, Inc. market cap?
Steel Dynamics, Inc. has a market capitalization of $32.95B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Basic Materials sector.
What sector and industry is STLD in?
Steel Dynamics, Inc. operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically within the Steel industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol STLD.
Is STLD stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Steel Dynamics, Inc. trades 1.1% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $225.01
- Current Price: $227.46
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is STLD stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 11 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Steel Dynamics, Inc. is $197.61, implying downside of 13.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $231.00
- Analyst Low Target: $142.73
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Steel Dynamics, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Steel Dynamics, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 18.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 87.4%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 3.1%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 9.4%
What are Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.2B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.2B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.5B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 13.2% | Declining |
What is STLD's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 24.4x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 13.5x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 20.7x
How volatile is STLD stock?
Steel Dynamics, Inc. has a beta of 1.40, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Steel Dynamics, Inc. have?
Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $556.5M
- Total Debt: $4.40B
- Net Cash Position: $-3.84B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s free cash flow?
Steel Dynamics, Inc. generated $-31.8M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.45B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Steel Dynamics, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Steel Dynamics, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.9%
- Payout Ratio: 21.8%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 23
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -12.6%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Steel Dynamics, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 5.72, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Steel Dynamics, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Steel Dynamics, Inc. scores 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is STLD's return on equity (ROE)?
Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s return on equity is 15.2%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy STLD stock?
STLD shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol STLD
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is STLD a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Steel Dynamics, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Steel Dynamics, Inc.?
The current CEO of Steel Dynamics, Inc. is Mr. Mark D. Millett.
What is STLD's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $9.32
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $16.89
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $14.98
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $16.39
Other Basic Materials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
STLD analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings