Dow Inc. (DOW) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Basic Materials · Chemicals
Is Dow Inc. a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for Dow Inc. (DOW) stock is $35.69, versus a market price of $31.07 — Watch — Analyst Anchor. Analyst Consensus (16 analysts) — EPS model not applicable at negative earnings.
Dow Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.5 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $35.69 (Watch — Analyst Anchor). Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
Could Dow Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.5 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives DOW's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1517 | 1.2 | 0.18 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2867 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.0281 | 3.3 | -0.09 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.5472 | 0.6 | 0.33 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.6828 | 1.0 | 0.68 |
How has DOW's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.37 | Gray |
| 2023 | 1.88 | Gray |
| 2024 | 1.87 | Gray |
| 2025 | 1.5 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from DOW's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
Dow Inc. Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $0.00 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Trailing P/E | 0.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 0.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | N/A | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $35.69 (16 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Dow Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up DOW's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is DOW's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19.1% | — |
| 2023 | 4.3% | Declining |
| 2024 | 7.4% | Rising |
| 2025 | -5.0% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Dow Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Dow Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 700.0%. FCF covers the dividend 2.7x. 8 consecutive years of payments.
US dividend withholding tax of 30% applies to non-US tax residents. This rate may be reduced under a tax treaty between the US and your country of residence. The adjusted yield shown assumes the default 30% rate. For informational purposes only — consult a qualified tax advisor.
Dow Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $40.0B | $43.0B | $56.9B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$2.6B | $1.1B | $4.6B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$1.4B | −$0.2B | $5.4B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 6.3% | 10.7% | 15.0% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our DOW analysis
DOW earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.78. Revenue estimate: $11.30B. Our current Fair Value: $35.69 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
DOW analyst consensus: 39% bullish (7 of 18 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 10 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $35.69 (14.9% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $35.69.
DOW filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW beat EPS estimates by 12.6%
Reported EPS: $1.44 vs estimate $1.28. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $35.69 (14.9% above current price).
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 700.0%.
DOW filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW beat EPS estimates by 51.7%
Reported EPS: $-0.14 vs estimate $-0.29. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $35.69 (14.9% above current price).
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 700.0%.
DOW filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW beat EPS estimates by 33.7%
Reported EPS: $-0.34 vs estimate $-0.51. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $35.69 (14.9% above current price).
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 700.0%.
DOW filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW beat EPS estimates by 36.8%
Reported EPS: $-0.19 vs estimate $-0.30. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $35.69 (14.9% above current price).
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 700.0%.
DOW filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW missed EPS estimates by 146.2%
Reported EPS: $-0.42 vs estimate $-0.17. Our Fair Value of $35.69 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW paid $0.7000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 700.0%.
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW beat EPS estimates by 249.8%
Reported EPS: $0.02 vs estimate $-0.01. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $35.69 (14.9% above current price).
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW paid $0.7000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 700.0%.
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.78. Revenue estimate: $11.30B. Our current Fair Value: $35.69 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
DOW filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Dow Inc.
What is Dow Inc. stock price today?
Dow Inc. (DOW) stock price is $31.07 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Dow Inc. do?
Dow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment provides ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, and aromatics products; and other ethylene derivatives, such as polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber.
What is Dow Inc. market cap?
Dow Inc. has a market capitalization of $22.44B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Basic Materials sector.
What sector and industry is DOW in?
Dow Inc. operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically within the Chemicals industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol DOW.
Is DOW stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Dow Inc. trades 12.9% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $35.69
- Current Price: $31.07
- Valuation Zone: Watch — Analyst Anchor
What is DOW stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 16 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Dow Inc. is $35.69, implying upside of 14.9% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $48.00
- Analyst Low Target: $29.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Dow Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Dow Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 9.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 370.9%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): -1.0%
- EPS growth (next year est.): -27.6%
What are Dow Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $40.0B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$2.6B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$1.4B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 6.3% | Declining |
What is DOW's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 16.9x
How volatile is DOW stock?
Dow Inc. has a beta of 0.42, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Dow Inc. have?
Dow Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $4.24B
- Total Debt: $19.44B
- Net Cash Position: $-15.20B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Dow Inc.'s free cash flow?
Dow Inc. generated $237.6M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $3.87B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Dow Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Dow Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 4.6%
- Payout Ratio: 700.0%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 8
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -24.2%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: C
Is Dow Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Dow Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 1.50, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Dow Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Dow Inc. scores 2.3/5 stars (Weak moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is DOW's return on equity (ROE)?
Dow Inc.'s return on equity is -5.5%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy DOW stock?
DOW shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol DOW
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is DOW a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Dow Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Dow Inc.?
The current CEO of Dow Inc. is Ms. Karen S. Carter.
What is DOW's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-1.83
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $1.84
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $2.55
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $1.84
Other Basic Materials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
DOW analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings