AppLovin Corporation (APP) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Communication Services · Advertising Agencies
Is AppLovin Corporation a safe investment right now?
AppLovin Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 22.59 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $486.40 (Watch Zone). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could AppLovin Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 22.59 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives APP's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.4266 | 1.2 | 0.51 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.239 | 1.4 | 0.33 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.573 | 3.3 | 1.89 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 31.8335 | 0.6 | 19.1 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.755 | 1.0 | 0.76 |
How has APP's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25.27 | Safe |
| 2023 | 24.62 | Safe |
| 2024 | 22.51 | Safe |
| 2025 | 22.59 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from APP's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is AppLovin Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $12.16 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $9.75 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $15.77 | 28 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 48.1x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $646.86 (28 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does AppLovin Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up APP's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is APP's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -0.7% | — |
| 2023 | 17.7% | Rising |
| 2024 | 41.9% | Rising |
| 2025 | 60.0% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is AppLovin Corporation's dividend safe?
AppLovin Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.5B | $3.2B | $2.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $3.3B | $1.6B | −$0.2B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.9B | $2.1B | $0.4B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 87.9% | 83.9% | 55.4% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our APP analysis
APP earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $3.64. Revenue estimate: $1.78B. Our current Fair Value: $486.40 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
APP analyst consensus: 86% bullish (25 of 29 analysts)
6 Strong Buy, 19 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $646.86 (33.7% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $486.40.
APP beat EPS estimates by 11.9%
Reported EPS: $3.48 vs estimate $3.11. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $486.40 (0.6% above current price).
APP beat EPS estimates by 2.6%
Reported EPS: $2.45 vs estimate $2.39. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $486.40 (0.6% above current price).
APP beat EPS estimates by 1.7%
Reported EPS: $2.36 vs estimate $2.32. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $486.40 (0.6% above current price).
APP beat EPS estimates by 21.8%
Reported EPS: $2.38 vs estimate $1.96. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $486.40 (0.6% above current price).
APP beat EPS estimates by 13.3%
Reported EPS: $2.07 vs estimate $1.83. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $486.40 (0.6% above current price).
Common questions about AppLovin Corporation
What is AppLovin Corporation stock price today?
AppLovin Corporation (APP) stock price is $483.71 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does AppLovin Corporation do?
AppLovin Corporation provides end-to-end artificial intelligence-powered advertising solutions for businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Advertising and Apps. It offers Axon Ads Manager, a suite of marketing solutions that enables developers to automate, optimize, and manage marketing efforts; MAX, an in-app bidding technology that optimizes the value of a publisher's advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction; Adjust, a measurement and analytics marketing platform; and Wurl, a connected TV platform, which distributes streaming video for content companies, provides advertising and publishing solutions.
What is AppLovin Corporation market cap?
AppLovin Corporation has a market capitalization of $163.14B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Communication Services sector.
What sector and industry is APP in?
AppLovin Corporation operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically within the Advertising Agencies industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol APP.
Is APP stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, AppLovin Corporation trades 0.5% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $486.40
- Current Price: $483.71
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is APP stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 28 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for AppLovin Corporation is $646.86, implying upside of 33.7% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $860.00
- Analyst Low Target: $340.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is AppLovin Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for AppLovin Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 46.9%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 61.8%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 29.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 31.0%
What are AppLovin Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | $3.3B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.9B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 87.9% | Rising |
What is APP's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 48.1x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 23.8x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is APP stock?
AppLovin Corporation has a beta of 2.50, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does AppLovin Corporation have?
AppLovin Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.49B
- Total Debt: $3.67B
- Net Cash Position: $-1.18B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is AppLovin Corporation's free cash flow?
AppLovin Corporation generated $2.70B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $4.02B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does AppLovin Corporation pay a dividend?
AppLovin Corporation does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is AppLovin Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
AppLovin Corporation's Altman Z-Score is 22.59, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does AppLovin Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
AppLovin Corporation scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is APP's return on equity (ROE)?
AppLovin Corporation's return on equity is 212.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy APP stock?
APP shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol APP
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is APP a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies AppLovin Corporation as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of AppLovin Corporation?
The current CEO of AppLovin Corporation is Mr. Adam Arash Foroughi.
What is APP's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $10.06
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $20.34
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $15.77
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $20.67
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
APP analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings