The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NGM · Communication Services · Advertising Agencies
Is The Trade Desk, Inc. a safe investment right now?
The Trade Desk, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.88 places it in the gray zone. Our fair value estimate is $30.33 (Strong Buy Zone). Moat rating: 2.7/5 stars.
Could The Trade Desk, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.88 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives TTD's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.3242 | 1.2 | 0.39 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.096 | 1.4 | -0.13 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0958 | 3.3 | 0.32 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 3.0566 | 0.6 | 1.83 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4707 | 1.0 | 0.47 |
How has TTD's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.13 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.5 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.32 | Safe |
| 2025 | 2.88 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from TTD's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is The Trade Desk, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $1.36 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $0.90 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $2.06 | 33 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 26.2x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 22.3x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $30.61 (33 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does The Trade Desk, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.7/5.
What makes up TTD's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is TTD's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.4% | — |
| 2023 | 9.3% | Rising |
| 2024 | 14.5% | Rising |
| 2025 | 23.7% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is The Trade Desk, Inc.'s dividend safe?
The Trade Desk, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.9B | $2.4B | $1.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.4B | $0.4B | $0.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.8B | $0.6B | $0.5B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 78.6% | 80.7% | 82.2% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our TTD analysis
TTD earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.32. Revenue estimate: $678.7M. Our current Fair Value: $30.33 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
TTD analyst consensus: 49% bullish (18 of 37 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 16 Hold, 2 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $30.61 (29.9% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $30.33.
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD beat EPS estimates by 1.7%
Reported EPS: $0.59 vs estimate $0.58. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $30.33 (28.7% above current price).
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD beat EPS estimates by 14.6%
Reported EPS: $0.23 vs estimate $0.20. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $30.33 (28.7% above current price).
TTD filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD missed EPS estimates by 0.9%
Reported EPS: $0.41 vs estimate $0.41. Our Fair Value of $30.33 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
TTD filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD beat EPS estimates by 165.5%
Reported EPS: $0.10 vs estimate $0.04. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $30.33 (28.7% above current price).
TTD filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
TTD beat EPS estimates by 8.3%
Reported EPS: $0.36 vs estimate $0.33. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $30.33 (28.7% above current price).
TTD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about The Trade Desk, Inc.
What is The Trade Desk, Inc. stock price today?
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) stock price is $23.56 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does The Trade Desk, Inc. do?
The Trade Desk, Inc. operates as a technology company in the United States and internationally. It creates, manages, and optimizes digital advertising campaigns across ad formats, channels and devices, including CTV and other video, display, audio, and native, on a multitude of devices, such televisions, streaming devices, mobile devices, computers and digital-out-of-home devices.
What is The Trade Desk, Inc. market cap?
The Trade Desk, Inc. has a market capitalization of $11.21B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Communication Services sector.
What sector and industry is TTD in?
The Trade Desk, Inc. operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically within the Advertising Agencies industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol TTD.
Is TTD stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, The Trade Desk, Inc. trades 22.3% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $30.33
- Current Price: $23.56
- Valuation Zone: Strong Buy Zone
What is TTD stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 33 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for The Trade Desk, Inc. is $30.61, implying upside of 29.9% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $55.00
- Analyst Low Target: $17.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is The Trade Desk, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for The Trade Desk, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 12.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 16.4%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 12.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 15.5%
What are The Trade Desk, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.8B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 78.6% | Stable |
What is TTD's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 26.2x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 9.9x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 22.3x
How volatile is TTD stock?
The Trade Desk, Inc. has a beta of 1.17, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does The Trade Desk, Inc. have?
The Trade Desk, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.30B
- Total Debt: $436.3M
- Net Cash Position: $866.7M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is The Trade Desk, Inc.'s free cash flow?
The Trade Desk, Inc. generated $601.5M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $992.7M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does The Trade Desk, Inc. pay a dividend?
The Trade Desk, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is The Trade Desk, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
The Trade Desk, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 2.88, placing it in the gray zone (1.8–3.0) — some financial uncertainty. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does The Trade Desk, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
The Trade Desk, Inc. scores 2.7/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is TTD's return on equity (ROE)?
The Trade Desk, Inc.'s return on equity is 16.3%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy TTD stock?
TTD shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol TTD
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is TTD a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies The Trade Desk, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of The Trade Desk, Inc.?
The current CEO of The Trade Desk, Inc. is Mr. Jeffrey Terry Green.
What is TTD's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $0.90
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $2.38
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $2.06
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $2.38
Other Communication Services companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
TTD analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings