Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Is Spotify Technology S.A. a safe investment right now?
Spotify Technology S.A.'s Altman Z-Score of 11.58 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $454.49 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 2.9/5 stars.
Could Spotify Technology S.A. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 11.58 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives SPOT's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2938 | 1.2 | 0.35 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.0554 | 1.4 | -0.08 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1502 | 3.3 | 0.5 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 16.1011 | 0.6 | 9.66 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.1446 | 1.0 | 1.14 |
How has SPOT's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 13.19 | Safe |
| 2023 | 11.96 | Safe |
| 2024 | 11.69 | Safe |
| 2025 | 11.58 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from SPOT's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Spotify Technology S.A. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $12.66 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $12.39 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $13.06 | 39 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 42.2x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 35.9x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $641.15 (39 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Spotify Technology S.A. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
What makes up SPOT's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is SPOT's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -9.3% | — |
| 2023 | -12.5% | Declining |
| 2024 | 19.5% | Rising |
| 2025 | 23.0% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Spotify Technology S.A.'s dividend safe?
Spotify Technology S.A.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.2B | $15.7B | $11.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.2B | $1.1B | −$0.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.9B | $2.3B | $0.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 32.0% | 30.1% | 24.9% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our SPOT analysis
SPOT earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.95. Revenue estimate: $4.52B. Our current Fair Value: $454.49 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
SPOT analyst consensus: 83% bullish (34 of 41 analysts)
11 Strong Buy, 23 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $641.15 (22.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $454.49.
SPOT beat EPS estimates by 59.4%
Reported EPS: $4.43 vs estimate $2.78. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $454.49 (13.1% below current price).
SPOT beat EPS estimates by 62.8%
Reported EPS: $3.28 vs estimate $2.02. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $454.49 (13.1% below current price).
SPOT missed EPS estimates by 121.2%
Reported EPS: $-0.42 vs estimate $1.98. Our Fair Value of $454.49 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
SPOT missed EPS estimates by 54.0%
Reported EPS: $1.07 vs estimate $2.33. Our Fair Value of $454.49 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
SPOT missed EPS estimates by 12.6%
Reported EPS: $1.76 vs estimate $2.01. Our Fair Value of $454.49 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
Common questions about Spotify Technology S.A.
What is Spotify Technology S.A. stock price today?
Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) stock price is $522.88 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Spotify Technology S.A. do?
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to its catalog of music and podcasts, including video, lossless music, and audiobooks in select markets through subscription offerings primarily sold directly to end users and partners.
What is Spotify Technology S.A. market cap?
Spotify Technology S.A. has a market capitalization of $107.65B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Communication Services sector.
What sector and industry is SPOT in?
Spotify Technology S.A. operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically within the Internet Content & Information industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol SPOT.
Is SPOT stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Spotify Technology S.A. trades 15.0% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $454.49
- Current Price: $522.88
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is SPOT stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 39 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Spotify Technology S.A. is $641.15, implying upside of 22.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $800.66
- Analyst Low Target: $414.44
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Spotify Technology S.A. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Spotify Technology S.A.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 13.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 24.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 13.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 25.5%
What are Spotify Technology S.A.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.2B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.9B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 32.0% | Rising |
What is SPOT's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 42.2x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 27.2x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 35.9x
How volatile is SPOT stock?
Spotify Technology S.A. has a beta of 1.70, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Spotify Technology S.A. have?
Spotify Technology S.A.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $7.72B
- Total Debt: $1.96B
- Net Cash Position: $5.76B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Spotify Technology S.A.'s free cash flow?
Spotify Technology S.A. generated $675.4M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.93B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Spotify Technology S.A. pay a dividend?
Spotify Technology S.A. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Spotify Technology S.A. at risk of going bankrupt?
Spotify Technology S.A.'s Altman Z-Score is 11.58, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Spotify Technology S.A. have a durable competitive advantage?
Spotify Technology S.A. scores 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is SPOT's return on equity (ROE)?
Spotify Technology S.A.'s return on equity is 31.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy SPOT stock?
SPOT shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol SPOT
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is SPOT a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Spotify Technology S.A. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Spotify Technology S.A.?
The current CEO of Spotify Technology S.A. is Mr. Alex Norström.
What is SPOT's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $12.39
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $19.25
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $13.06
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $16.40
Other Communication Services companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
SPOT analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings