Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Is Alphabet Inc. a safe investment right now?
Alphabet Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 16.15 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $296.86 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Could Alphabet Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 16.15 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives GOOG's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1735 | 1.2 | 0.21 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5444 | 1.4 | 0.76 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.268 | 3.3 | 0.88 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 22.6953 | 0.6 | 13.62 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.6767 | 1.0 | 0.68 |
How has GOOG's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24.95 | Safe |
| 2023 | 23.07 | Safe |
| 2024 | 22.2 | Safe |
| 2025 | 16.15 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from GOOG's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Alphabet Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $11.16 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $10.81 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $11.68 | 18 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 31.2x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 26.6x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $362.50 (18 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Alphabet Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up GOOG's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is GOOG's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 26.7% | — |
| 2023 | 29.1% | Rising |
| 2024 | 35.7% | Rising |
| 2025 | 34.5% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Alphabet Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Alphabet Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 7.7%. FCF covers the dividend 0.0x. 3 consecutive years of payments.
Alphabet Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $402.8B | $350.0B | $282.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $132.2B | $100.1B | $60.0B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $73.3B | $72.8B | $60.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 59.7% | 58.2% | 55.4% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our GOOG analysis
GOOG earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.63. Revenue estimate: $106.99B. Our current Fair Value: $296.86 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
GOOG analyst consensus: 90% bullish (61 of 68 analysts)
12 Strong Buy, 49 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $362.50 (7.3% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $296.86.
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG paid $0.2100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 7.7%.
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG beat EPS estimates by 6.8%
Reported EPS: $2.82 vs estimate $2.64. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $296.86 (12.1% below current price).
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG paid $0.2100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 7.7%.
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG beat EPS estimates by 26.9%
Reported EPS: $2.87 vs estimate $2.26. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $296.86 (12.1% below current price).
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG paid $0.2100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 7.7%.
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG beat EPS estimates by 5.1%
Reported EPS: $2.31 vs estimate $2.20. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $296.86 (12.1% below current price).
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG paid $0.2100/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 7.7%.
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG beat EPS estimates by 39.8%
Reported EPS: $2.81 vs estimate $2.01. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $296.86 (12.1% below current price).
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG paid $0.2000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 7.7%.
GOOG filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
GOOG beat EPS estimates by 1.2%
Reported EPS: $2.15 vs estimate $2.13. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $296.86 (12.1% below current price).
GOOG filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Alphabet Inc.
What is Alphabet Inc. stock price today?
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) stock price is $337.73 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Alphabet Inc. do?
Alphabet Inc. offers various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments.
What is Alphabet Inc. market cap?
Alphabet Inc. has a market capitalization of $4.09T, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Communication Services sector.
What sector and industry is GOOG in?
Alphabet Inc. operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically within the Internet Content & Information industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol GOOG.
Is GOOG stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Alphabet Inc. trades 13.8% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $296.86
- Current Price: $337.73
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is GOOG stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 18 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Alphabet Inc. is $362.50, implying upside of 7.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $405.00
- Analyst Low Target: $185.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Alphabet Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Alphabet Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 17.1%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 8.0%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 15.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 15.5%
What are Alphabet Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $402.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $132.2B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $73.3B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 59.7% | Rising |
What is GOOG's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 31.2x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 25.0x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 26.6x
How volatile is GOOG stock?
Alphabet Inc. has a beta of 1.13, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Alphabet Inc. have?
Alphabet Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $126.84B
- Total Debt: $67.00B
- Net Cash Position: $59.85B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Alphabet Inc.'s free cash flow?
Alphabet Inc. generated $38.09B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $164.71B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Alphabet Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Alphabet Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.2%
- Payout Ratio: 7.7%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 3
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: 0.0%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: C
Is Alphabet Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Alphabet Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 16.15, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Alphabet Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Alphabet Inc. scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is GOOG's return on equity (ROE)?
Alphabet Inc.'s return on equity is 35.7%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy GOOG stock?
GOOG shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol GOOG
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is GOOG a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Alphabet Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Alphabet Inc.?
The current CEO of Alphabet Inc. is Mr. Sundar Pichai.
What is GOOG's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $10.81
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $13.50
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $11.68
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $13.48
Other Communication Services companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
GOOG analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings