The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Is The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. a safe investment right now?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) stock is $65.20, versus a market price of $101.59 — Overvalued. Predicted EPS $1.63 x 40.0 Fair PE.
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 3.18 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $65.20 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.3/5 stars.
Could The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.18 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives EL's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0699 | 1.2 | 0.08 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5739 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0431 | 3.3 | 0.14 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.3069 | 0.6 | 1.38 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.7615 | 1.0 | 0.76 |
How has EL's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3.2 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.23 | Safe |
| 2025 | 2.9 | Gray |
| 2026 | 3.18 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from EL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
That gap between price and value is the whole point — it is Seth Klarman's Margin of Safety, and it is why we publish the inputs rather than a verdict. If you want the mechanics, see the fair value model behind this number; for the original statement of the method, see the Graham and Dodd framework.
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $1.63 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $0.50 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $3.32 | 28 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 203.2x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $107.34 (28 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.3/5.
A moat rating means little without the definition behind it — read the different types of economic moat before you lean on this score. It falls short of our 3.5-star wide-moat bar — see companies with the widest moats for the companies that clear it.
What makes up EL's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is EL's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 12.1% | — |
| 2024 | 8.8% | Declining |
| 2025 | -6.1% | Declining |
| 2026 | 7.7% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 280.0%. FCF covers the dividend -1.7x. 31 consecutive years of payments.
US dividend withholding tax of 30% applies to non-US tax residents. This rate may be reduced under a tax treaty between the US and your country of residence. The adjusted yield shown assumes the default 30% rate. For informational purposes only — consult a qualified tax advisor.
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.0B | $14.3B | $15.9B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.2B | −$1.1B | $1.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.3B | $0.7B | −$1.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 75.5% | 74.0% | 71.3% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our EL analysis
EL earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.51. Revenue estimate: $3.65B. Our current Fair Value: $65.20 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
EL analyst consensus: 50% bullish (15 of 30 analysts)
6 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 14 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $107.34 (5.7% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $65.20.
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: D. Payout ratio: 280.0%.
EL beat EPS estimates by 22.1%
Reported EPS: $0.39 vs estimate $0.32. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.20 (35.8% below current price).
EL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: D. Payout ratio: 280.0%.
EL beat EPS estimates by 40.2%
Reported EPS: $0.91 vs estimate $0.65. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.20 (35.8% below current price).
EL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: D. Payout ratio: 280.0%.
EL beat EPS estimates by 6.6%
Reported EPS: $0.89 vs estimate $0.83. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.20 (35.8% below current price).
EL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: D. Payout ratio: 280.0%.
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL beat EPS estimates by 81.9%
Reported EPS: $0.32 vs estimate $0.18. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.20 (35.8% below current price).
EL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: D. Payout ratio: 280.0%.
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL beat EPS estimates by 1.1%
Reported EPS: $0.09 vs estimate $0.09. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.20 (35.8% below current price).
EL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: D. Payout ratio: 280.0%.
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL beat EPS estimates by 108.8%
Reported EPS: $0.65 vs estimate $0.31. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.20 (35.8% below current price).
EL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: D. Payout ratio: 280.0%.
EL beat EPS estimates by 93.8%
Reported EPS: $0.62 vs estimate $0.32. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $65.20 (35.8% below current price).
EL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.
What is The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. stock price today?
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) stock price is $101.59 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. do?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide. It provides skin care products, including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, eye care, body care, exfoliators, acne care and oil correctors, facial masks, and sun care products; and makeup products, such as foundations, powders, concealers and setting sprays, lipsticks, lip liners and lip glosses, mascaras, and eyeshadows and eyeliners, as well as compacts, brushes, and other makeup tools.
What is The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. market cap?
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. has a market capitalization of $36.81B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is EL in?
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Household & Personal Products industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol EL.
Is EL stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. trades 55.8% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $65.20
- Current Price: $101.59
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is EL stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 28 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. is $107.34, implying upside of 5.7% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $127.00
- Analyst Low Target: $70.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 4.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 32.4%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 4.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 18.1%
What are The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.0B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.2B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.3B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 75.5% | Rising |
What is EL's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 203.2x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 25.9x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is EL stock?
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. has a beta of 1.26, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. have?
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $3.50B
- Total Debt: $9.25B
- Net Cash Position: $-5.75B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.'s free cash flow?
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. generated $1.81B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.77B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.4%
- Payout Ratio: 280.0%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 31
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -13.7%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: D
Is The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 3.18, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. scores 3.3/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is EL's return on equity (ROE)?
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.'s return on equity is 4.7%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy EL stock?
EL shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol EL
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is EL a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. as Pure Speculation. It lacks the financial stability or valuation margin typically required for value investing. This stock is considered high risk.
Who is the CEO of The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.?
The current CEO of The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. is Mr. Stephane de la Faverie.
What is EL's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $0.50
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $3.93
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $3.32
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $3.93
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Oct 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
EL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings