Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T (EL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Is Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T (EL) stock is $95.85, versus a market price of $86.10 — Watch — Analyst Anchor. Analyst Consensus (26 analysts) — EPS model not applicable at negative earnings.
Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T's Altman Z-Score of 1.53 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $95.85 (Watch — Analyst Anchor). Moat rating: 3.0/5 stars.
Could Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.53 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives EL's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0821 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5868 | 1.4 | 0.82 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.0343 | 3.3 | -0.11 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.7202 | 1.0 | 0.72 |
How has EL's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.49 | Gray |
| 2023 | 1.9 | Gray |
| 2024 | 1.89 | Gray |
| 2025 | 1.53 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from EL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $0.00 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Trailing P/E | 0.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 0.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | N/A | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $95.85 (26 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.0/5.
What makes up EL's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is EL's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 29.1% | — |
| 2023 | 12.1% | Declining |
| 2024 | 8.8% | Declining |
| 2025 | -6.1% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T's dividend safe?
Can Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 471.4%. FCF covers the dividend 2.4x. 31 consecutive years of payments.
US dividend withholding tax of 30% applies to non-US tax residents. This rate may be reduced under a tax treaty between the US and your country of residence. The adjusted yield shown assumes the default 30% rate. For informational purposes only — consult a qualified tax advisor.
Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.3B | $15.6B | $17.7B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$1.1B | $0.4B | $2.4B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.7B | $1.4B | $2.0B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 74.0% | 71.7% | 75.7% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our EL analysis
EL earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.32. Revenue estimate: $3.55B. Our current Fair Value: $95.85 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
EL analyst consensus: 46% bullish (13 of 28 analysts)
6 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 14 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $95.85 (11.3% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $95.85.
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 471.4%.
EL beat EPS estimates by 40.2%
Reported EPS: $0.91 vs estimate $0.65. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $95.85 (11.3% above current price).
EL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 471.4%.
EL beat EPS estimates by 6.6%
Reported EPS: $0.89 vs estimate $0.83. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $95.85 (11.3% above current price).
EL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 471.4%.
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL beat EPS estimates by 81.9%
Reported EPS: $0.32 vs estimate $0.18. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $95.85 (11.3% above current price).
EL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 471.4%.
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL beat EPS estimates by 1.1%
Reported EPS: $0.09 vs estimate $0.09. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $95.85 (11.3% above current price).
EL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 471.4%.
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL beat EPS estimates by 108.8%
Reported EPS: $0.65 vs estimate $0.31. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $95.85 (11.3% above current price).
EL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL paid $0.3500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 471.4%.
EL beat EPS estimates by 93.8%
Reported EPS: $0.62 vs estimate $0.32. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $95.85 (11.3% above current price).
EL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T
What is Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T stock price today?
Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T (EL) stock price is $86.10 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T do?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide. It offers skin care products, including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, eye care, body care, exfoliators, acne care and oil correctors, facial masks, and sun care products; and makeup products, such as foundations, powders, concealers and setting sprays, lipsticks, lip liners and lip glosses, mascaras, and eyeshadows and eyeliners, as well as compacts, brushes, and other makeup tools.
What sector and industry is EL in?
Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Household & Personal Products industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol EL.
Is EL stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T trades 10.2% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $95.85
- Current Price: $86.10
- Valuation Zone: Watch — Analyst Anchor
What is EL stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 26 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T is $95.85, implying upside of 11.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $125.00
- Analyst Low Target: $70.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 4.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 60.7%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 3.8%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 31.0%
What are Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.3B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$1.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.7B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 74.0% | Stable |
What is EL's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 27.1x
How volatile is EL stock?
Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T has a beta of 1.25, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T have?
Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $3.13B
- Total Debt: $9.30B
- Net Cash Position: $-6.17B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T's free cash flow?
Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T generated $1.81B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.80B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 1.6%
- Payout Ratio: 471.4%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 31
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -20.4%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T at risk of going bankrupt?
Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T's Altman Z-Score is 1.53, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T have a durable competitive advantage?
Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T scores 3.0/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is EL's return on equity (ROE)?
Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T's return on equity is -5.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy EL stock?
EL shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol EL
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is EL a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T?
The current CEO of Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T is Mr. Stephane de la Faverie.
What is EL's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-0.70
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $3.18
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $2.43
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $3.18
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
EL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings