Moody's Corporation (MCO) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Is Moody's Corporation a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for Moody's Corporation (MCO) stock is $560.48, versus a market price of $484.96 — Buy Zone. Analyst Consensus (21 analysts).
Moody's Corporation is in the Financial Services sector — Altman Z-Score does not apply to this type of company. Our fair value estimate is $560.48 (Buy Zone).
Why the Altman Z-Score does not apply to Moody's Corporation
The Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing and non-financial companies. It uses ratios like Working Capital / Total Assets and Revenue / Total Assets that produce misleading results for Financial Services companies.
- Banks hold massive assets (loans) that inflate Total Assets, making WC/TA nearly zero — a false distress signal
- Utilities carry high regulated debt by design — the model misreads leverage as risk
- REITs use Funds From Operations (FFO), not Free Cash Flow — standard cash flow analysis doesn't apply
Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing companies and does not apply to banks, utilities, or REITs.
Note: A sector-specific financial health model for Financial Services companies is planned for a future update.
Moody's Corporation Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst Consensus Target | $560.48 | 21 Wall Street analysts |
| Analyst High / Low | $610.00 / $505.00 | Range of analyst price targets |
| Price / Book | 27.76x | Current market valuation vs book value |
| Return on Equity | 76.9% | Profitability relative to shareholder equity |
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Why standard moat analysis does not apply to Moody's Corporation
Our standard moat model uses ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and switching costs — metrics designed for product and service companies. Financial Services companies compete on fundamentally different dimensions.
- Banks — moat comes from deposit cost advantage, net interest margin stability, and fee income diversification
- Utilities — moat is a regulatory monopoly with guaranteed rate of return on invested capital
- REITs — moat comes from property portfolio quality, location, tenant mix, and cap rate advantages
Standard moat analysis (ROIC/gross margin/switching costs) does not reliably apply to Financial Services companies. Banks compete on net interest margin, utilities on regulated returns, and REITs on occupancy and cap rates.
Note: A sector-specific competitive analysis for Financial Services companies is planned for a future update.
Is Moody's Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Moody's Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 25.0%. FCF covers the dividend 2.3x. 27 consecutive years of payments.
US dividend withholding tax of 30% applies to non-US tax residents. This rate may be reduced under a tax treaty between the US and your country of residence. The adjusted yield shown assumes the default 30% rate. For informational purposes only — consult a qualified tax advisor.
Moody's Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.7B | $7.1B | $5.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.5B | $2.1B | $1.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.6B | $2.5B | $1.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 74.4% | 72.6% | 70.5% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our MCO analysis
MCO earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $4.25. Revenue estimate: $2.07B. Our current Fair Value: $560.48 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
MCO paid $1.0300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 25.0%.
MCO analyst consensus: 71% bullish (17 of 24 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $560.48 (15.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $560.48.
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO beat EPS estimates by 10.0%
Reported EPS: $4.68 vs estimate $4.25. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $560.48 (15.6% above current price).
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO paid $1.0300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 25.0%.
MCO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO beat EPS estimates by 2.6%
Reported EPS: $4.33 vs estimate $4.22. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $560.48 (15.6% above current price).
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO paid $1.0300/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 25.0%.
MCO beat EPS estimates by 6.0%
Reported EPS: $3.64 vs estimate $3.44. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $560.48 (15.6% above current price).
MCO filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO paid $0.9400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 25.0%.
MCO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO beat EPS estimates by 6.4%
Reported EPS: $3.92 vs estimate $3.68. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $560.48 (15.6% above current price).
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO paid $0.9400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 25.0%.
MCO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO beat EPS estimates by 5.0%
Reported EPS: $3.56 vs estimate $3.39. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $560.48 (15.6% above current price).
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO paid $0.9400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 25.0%.
MCO filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO beat EPS estimates by 8.2%
Reported EPS: $3.83 vs estimate $3.54. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $560.48 (15.6% above current price).
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO paid $0.9400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 25.0%.
MCO filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO beat EPS estimates by 1.6%
Reported EPS: $2.62 vs estimate $2.58. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $560.48 (15.6% above current price).
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MCO filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Moody's Corporation
What is Moody's Corporation stock price today?
Moody's Corporation (MCO) stock price is $484.96 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Moody's Corporation do?
Moody's Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated risk assessment firm in the United States, the rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Moody's Analytics (MA) and Moody's Investors Service (MIS). The MA segment develops a range of products and services that support the risk management activities of institutional participants in financial markets.
What is Moody's Corporation market cap?
Moody's Corporation has a market capitalization of $83.99B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Financial Services sector.
What sector and industry is MCO in?
Moody's Corporation operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically within the Financial Data & Stock Exchanges industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol MCO.
Is MCO stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Moody's Corporation trades 13.5% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $560.48
- Current Price: $484.96
- Valuation Zone: Buy Zone
What is MCO stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 21 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Moody's Corporation is $560.48, implying upside of 15.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $610.00
- Analyst Low Target: $505.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Moody's Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Moody's Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 7.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 13.6%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 7.2%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 11.4%
What are Moody's Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 74.4% | Rising |
What is MCO's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 30.7x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 25.6x
How volatile is MCO stock?
Moody's Corporation has a beta of 1.33, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Moody's Corporation have?
Moody's Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.50B
- Total Debt: $7.62B
- Net Cash Position: $-6.12B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Moody's Corporation's free cash flow?
Moody's Corporation generated $2.58B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $3.32B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Moody's Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Moody's Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.8%
- Payout Ratio: 25.0%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 27
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: 4.5%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Moody's Corporation financially healthy?
The Altman Z-Score — the standard bankruptcy prediction model — is not applicable to Financial Services companies like Moody's Corporation. The formula uses ratios designed for manufacturing firms that produce misleading results for banks, utilities, and REITs.
Does Moody's Corporation have a competitive moat?
Our standard moat model (based on ROIC, gross margins, and switching costs) does not apply to Financial Services companies. These firms compete on fundamentally different dimensions such as regulatory advantages, deposit cost structures, or property portfolios.
What is MCO's return on equity (ROE)?
Moody's Corporation's return on equity is 76.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy MCO stock?
MCO shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MCO
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MCO a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Moody's Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Moody's Corporation?
The current CEO of Moody's Corporation is Mr. Robert Scott Fauber.
What is MCO's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $15.78
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $18.91
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $16.97
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $18.91
Other Financial Services companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MCO analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings