Vistra Corp. (VST) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Is Vistra Corp. a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for Vistra Corp. (VST) stock is $221.74, versus a market price of $148.13 — Strong Buy Zone. Analyst Consensus (19 analysts).
Vistra Corp. is in the Utilities sector — Altman Z-Score does not apply to this type of company. Our fair value estimate is $221.74 (Strong Buy Zone).
Vistra Corp. is part of the Powering AI — Nuclear, Utilities, Cooling & Electrical group in our AI coverage — compare its fair value against every other AI, cloud, and quantum stock through a value investing lens.
Why the Altman Z-Score does not apply to Vistra Corp.
The Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing and non-financial companies. It uses ratios like Working Capital / Total Assets and Revenue / Total Assets that produce misleading results for Utilities companies.
- Banks hold massive assets (loans) that inflate Total Assets, making WC/TA nearly zero — a false distress signal
- Utilities carry high regulated debt by design — the model misreads leverage as risk
- REITs use Funds From Operations (FFO), not Free Cash Flow — standard cash flow analysis doesn't apply
Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing companies and does not apply to banks, utilities, or REITs.
Note: A sector-specific financial health model for Utilities companies is planned for a future update.
Vistra Corp. Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst Consensus Target | $221.74 | 19 Wall Street analysts |
| Analyst High / Low | $313.00 / $106.00 | Range of analyst price targets |
| Price / Book | 16.05x | Current market valuation vs book value |
| Return on Equity | 43.0% | Profitability relative to shareholder equity |
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Why standard moat analysis does not apply to Vistra Corp.
Our standard moat model uses ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and switching costs — metrics designed for product and service companies. Utilities companies compete on fundamentally different dimensions.
- Banks — moat comes from deposit cost advantage, net interest margin stability, and fee income diversification
- Utilities — moat is a regulatory monopoly with guaranteed rate of return on invested capital
- REITs — moat comes from property portfolio quality, location, tenant mix, and cap rate advantages
Standard moat analysis (ROIC/gross margin/switching costs) does not reliably apply to Utilities companies. Banks compete on net interest margin, utilities on regulated returns, and REITs on occupancy and cap rates.
Note: A sector-specific competitive analysis for Utilities companies is planned for a future update.
Is Vistra Corp.'s dividend safe?
Can Vistra Corp. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 15.3%. FCF covers the dividend -2.7x. 9 consecutive years of payments.
US dividend withholding tax of 30% applies to non-US tax residents. This rate may be reduced under a tax treaty between the US and your country of residence. The adjusted yield shown assumes the default 30% rate. For informational purposes only — consult a qualified tax advisor.
Vistra Corp.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.7B | $17.2B | $13.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.9B | $2.7B | −$1.2B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.3B | $2.5B | −$0.8B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 32.9% | 43.7% | 12.2% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our VST analysis
VST earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.67. Revenue estimate: $7.19B. Our current Fair Value: $221.74 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
VST analyst consensus: 95% bullish (19 of 20 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $221.74 (49.7% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $221.74.
VST missed EPS estimates by 53.4%
Reported EPS: $0.76 vs estimate $1.63. Our Fair Value of $221.74 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
VST filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST paid $0.2290/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 15.3%.
VST beat EPS estimates by 53.4%
Reported EPS: $2.87 vs estimate $1.87. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $221.74 (49.7% above current price).
VST filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST paid $0.2280/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 15.3%.
VST missed EPS estimates by 76.5%
Reported EPS: $0.54 vs estimate $2.30. Our Fair Value of $221.74 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
VST filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST paid $0.2270/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 15.3%.
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST missed EPS estimates by 1.3%
Reported EPS: $1.38 vs estimate $1.40. Our Fair Value of $221.74 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
VST filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST paid $0.2260/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 15.3%.
VST missed EPS estimates by 32.5%
Reported EPS: $0.71 vs estimate $1.05. Our Fair Value of $221.74 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
VST filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST paid $0.2250/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 15.3%.
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST missed EPS estimates by 251.7%
Reported EPS: $-0.93 vs estimate $0.61. Our Fair Value of $221.74 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
VST filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST paid $0.2240/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: C. Payout ratio: 15.3%.
VST missed EPS estimates by 21.2%
Reported EPS: $1.14 vs estimate $1.45. Our Fair Value of $221.74 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
VST filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
VST filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Vistra Corp.
What is Vistra Corp. stock price today?
Vistra Corp. (VST) stock price is $148.13 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Vistra Corp. do?
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia.
What is Vistra Corp. market cap?
Vistra Corp. has a market capitalization of $49.72B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Utilities sector.
What sector and industry is VST in?
Vistra Corp. operates in the Utilities sector, specifically within the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol VST.
Is VST stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Vistra Corp. trades 33.2% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $221.74
- Current Price: $148.13
- Valuation Zone: Strong Buy Zone
What is VST stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 19 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Vistra Corp. is $221.74, implying upside of 49.7% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $313.00
- Analyst Low Target: $106.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Vistra Corp. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Vistra Corp.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 24.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 347.0%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 12.9%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 11.3%
What are Vistra Corp.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.9B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.3B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 32.9% | Rising |
What is VST's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 25.0x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 14.3x
How volatile is VST stock?
Vistra Corp. has a beta of 1.43, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Vistra Corp. have?
Vistra Corp.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $435.0M
- Total Debt: $20.51B
- Net Cash Position: $-20.07B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Vistra Corp.'s free cash flow?
Vistra Corp. generated $37.1M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $5.12B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Vistra Corp. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Vistra Corp. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.6%
- Payout Ratio: 15.3%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 9
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -5.3%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: C
Is Vistra Corp. financially healthy?
The Altman Z-Score — the standard bankruptcy prediction model — is not applicable to Utilities companies like Vistra Corp.. The formula uses ratios designed for manufacturing firms that produce misleading results for banks, utilities, and REITs.
Does Vistra Corp. have a competitive moat?
Our standard moat model (based on ROIC, gross margins, and switching costs) does not apply to Utilities companies. These firms compete on fundamentally different dimensions such as regulatory advantages, deposit cost structures, or property portfolios.
What is VST's return on equity (ROE)?
Vistra Corp.'s return on equity is 43.0%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy VST stock?
VST shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol VST
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is VST a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Vistra Corp. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Vistra Corp.?
The current CEO of Vistra Corp. is Mr. James A. Burke CPA.
What is VST's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $5.93
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $10.37
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $9.74
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $10.85
Other Utilities companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
VST analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings