Exelon Corporation (EXC) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Is Exelon Corporation a safe investment right now?
Exelon Corporation is in the Utilities sector — Altman Z-Score does not apply to this type of company. Our fair value estimate is $50.44 (Watch Zone).
Why the Altman Z-Score does not apply to Exelon Corporation
The Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing and non-financial companies. It uses ratios like Working Capital / Total Assets and Revenue / Total Assets that produce misleading results for Utilities companies.
- Banks hold massive assets (loans) that inflate Total Assets, making WC/TA nearly zero — a false distress signal
- Utilities carry high regulated debt by design — the model misreads leverage as risk
- REITs use Funds From Operations (FFO), not Free Cash Flow — standard cash flow analysis doesn't apply
Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing companies and does not apply to banks, utilities, or REITs.
Note: A sector-specific financial health model for Utilities companies is planned for a future update.
What is Exelon Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst Consensus Target | $50.44 | 18 Wall Street analysts |
| Analyst High / Low | $58.00 / $44.00 | Range of analyst price targets |
| Price / Book | 1.63x | Current market valuation vs book value |
| Return on Equity | 9.9% | Profitability relative to shareholder equity |
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Why standard moat analysis does not apply to Exelon Corporation
Our standard moat model uses ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and switching costs — metrics designed for product and service companies. Utilities companies compete on fundamentally different dimensions.
- Banks — moat comes from deposit cost advantage, net interest margin stability, and fee income diversification
- Utilities — moat is a regulatory monopoly with guaranteed rate of return on invested capital
- REITs — moat comes from property portfolio quality, location, tenant mix, and cap rate advantages
Standard moat analysis (ROIC/gross margin/switching costs) does not reliably apply to Utilities companies. Banks compete on net interest margin, utilities on regulated returns, and REITs on occupancy and cap rates.
Note: A sector-specific competitive analysis for Utilities companies is planned for a future update.
Is Exelon Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Exelon Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 58.6%. FCF covers the dividend -1.7x. 54 consecutive years of payments.
Exelon Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.3B | $23.0B | $19.1B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.8B | $2.5B | $2.2B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | −$2.3B | −$1.5B | −$2.3B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 42.9% | 40.8% | 42.1% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our EXC analysis
EXC earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.87. Revenue estimate: $7.08B. Our current Fair Value: $50.44 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
EXC analyst consensus: 18% bullish (4 of 22 analysts)
0 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 16 Hold, 2 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $50.44 (10.0% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $50.44.
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC paid $0.4200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 58.6%.
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC missed EPS estimates by 0.1%
Reported EPS: $0.58 vs estimate $0.58. Our Fair Value of $50.44 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
EXC filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC paid $0.4000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 58.6%.
EXC beat EPS estimates by 11.1%
Reported EPS: $0.86 vs estimate $0.77. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $50.44 (10.0% above current price).
EXC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC paid $0.4000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 58.6%.
EXC beat EPS estimates by 6.1%
Reported EPS: $0.39 vs estimate $0.37. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $50.44 (10.0% above current price).
EXC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC paid $0.4000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 58.6%.
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC beat EPS estimates by 6.9%
Reported EPS: $0.92 vs estimate $0.86. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $50.44 (10.0% above current price).
EXC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC paid $0.4000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 58.6%.
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC beat EPS estimates by 8.0%
Reported EPS: $0.64 vs estimate $0.59. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $50.44 (10.0% above current price).
EXC filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
EXC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Exelon Corporation
What is Exelon Corporation stock price today?
Exelon Corporation (EXC) stock price is $45.86 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Exelon Corporation do?
Exelon Corporation, a utility services holding company, engages in the energy distribution and transmission businesses in the United States. It is involved in the purchase and regulated retail sale of electricity and natural gas; transmission and distribution of electricity; and distribution of natural gas to retail customers. It serves residential, commercial, industrial, and public authorities and electric railroads customers.
What is Exelon Corporation market cap?
Exelon Corporation has a market capitalization of $46.92B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Utilities sector.
What sector and industry is EXC in?
Exelon Corporation operates in the Utilities sector, specifically within the Utilities - Regulated Electric industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol EXC.
Is EXC stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Exelon Corporation trades 9.1% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $50.44
- Current Price: $45.86
- Valuation Zone: Watch Zone
What is EXC stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 18 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Exelon Corporation is $50.44, implying upside of 10.0% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $58.00
- Analyst Low Target: $44.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Exelon Corporation revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Exelon Corporation:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 4.0%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 3.0%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 3.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 6.6%
What are Exelon Corporation's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.3B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.8B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | −$2.3B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 42.9% | Stable |
What is EXC's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 16.8x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 15.1x
How volatile is EXC stock?
Exelon Corporation has a beta of 0.51, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Exelon Corporation have?
Exelon Corporation's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $629.0M
- Total Debt: $50.25B
- Net Cash Position: $-49.62B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Exelon Corporation's free cash flow?
Exelon Corporation generated $-2.12B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $6.25B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Exelon Corporation pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Exelon Corporation pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 3.5%
- Payout Ratio: 58.6%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 54
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -17.4%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Exelon Corporation financially healthy?
The Altman Z-Score — the standard bankruptcy prediction model — is not applicable to Utilities companies like Exelon Corporation. The formula uses ratios designed for manufacturing firms that produce misleading results for banks, utilities, and REITs.
Does Exelon Corporation have a competitive moat?
Our standard moat model (based on ROIC, gross margins, and switching costs) does not apply to Utilities companies. These firms compete on fundamentally different dimensions such as regulatory advantages, deposit cost structures, or property portfolios.
What is EXC's return on equity (ROE)?
Exelon Corporation's return on equity is 9.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy EXC stock?
EXC shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol EXC
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is EXC a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Exelon Corporation as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Exelon Corporation?
The current CEO of Exelon Corporation is Mr. Calvin G. Butler Jr..
What is EXC's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $2.73
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $3.04
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $2.85
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $3.04
Other Utilities companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
EXC analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings