Risk Analysis: Is Intel a Value Trap or Safe to Buy?
NMS · Technology · Semiconductors
Is Intel Corporation a safe investment right now?
Intel Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 1.71 places it in the distress zone. Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $79.94, suggesting the stock may be undervalued by 18%. Moat rating: 2.6/5 stars.
Could Intel Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.71 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives INTC's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0593 | 1.2 | 0.07 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2495 | 1.4 | 0.35 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0005 | 3.3 | 0.0 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.6789 | 0.6 | 1.01 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.276 | 1.0 | 0.28 |
How has INTC's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3.24 | Safe |
| 2017 | 2.82 | Gray |
| 2018 | 3.04 | Safe |
| 2019 | 3.17 | Safe |
| 2020 | 3.16 | Safe |
| 2021 | 2.93 | Gray |
| 2022 | 2.89 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.53 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.0 | Gray |
| 2025 | 1.71 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from INTC's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Intel Corporation actually worth?
What assumptions go into this valuation?
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | 20.0% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | 27.9% | Consensus (41 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | 99.7% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | 0.9% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.7% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 1.35*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $-9,693M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $16.4B | Trailing 12 months |
| Shares Outstanding | 5,021,010,228 | Latest |
How sensitive is the valuation to growth rate changes?
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 10.7% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $52.64 | $38.90 | $35.67 | $28.07 |
| 2.5% | $60.95 | $44.69 | $40.88 | $31.92 |
| 5.0% | $70.47 | $51.31 | $46.82 | $36.30 |
| 7.5% | $83.47 | $60.19 | $54.75 | $42.05 |
What does INTC's free cash flow history look like?
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $10.3B | — |
| 2020 | $14.3B | +37.9% |
| 2021 | $16.9B | +18.8% |
| 2022 | $21.6B | +27.6% |
| 2023 | $10.7B | +-50.4% |
| 2024 | $−9.4B | N/A |
| 2025 | $−14.3B | N/A |
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does Intel Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.6/5.
What makes up INTC's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 1/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 5/5.
How stable is INTC's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17.9% | — |
| 2017 | 15.0% | Declining |
| 2018 | 12.4% | Declining |
| 2019 | 16.2% | Rising |
| 2020 | 20.4% | Rising |
| 2021 | 17.2% | Declining |
| 2022 | 16.8% | Stable |
| 2023 | 13.0% | Declining |
| 2024 | 1.4% | Declining |
| 2025 | 0.1% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Intel Corporation's dividend safe?
Intel Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $54.2B | $63.1B | $77.9B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.7B | $8.0B | $20.9B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$14.3B | −$9.4B | $21.6B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 40.0% | 42.6% | 56.0% | Declining |
Common questions about Intel Corporation
Is Intel Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Intel Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 1.71 places it in the distress zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Intel Corporation's intrinsic value based on DCF?
Our DCF model estimates Intel Corporation's intrinsic value at $79.94 per share. The current margin of safety is 17.8%. This estimate is based on historical free cash flow trends and a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Does Intel Corporation have a competitive moat?
Intel Corporation receives a moat rating of 2.6 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Does Intel Corporation pay a dividend?
Intel Corporation does not currently pay a regular dividend, or has suspended its dividend. Check the dividend safety section for the latest status.
Important disclaimer
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data may not reflect the most recent quarter if SEC filings have not yet been processed.
INTC analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings